the hypothesis of a target at $12,000 returns to the table

The analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat has reiterated a bullish view for Ethereum, suggesting a scenario where ETH could reach levels around $12,000 by the end of the year. In this context, the narrative has returned to the forefront, but the difference could be made by the data. Below, the context, technical levels, and key factors to monitor in the coming weeks are analyzed.

According to the data collected by our research desk and reports gathered from institutional desks, there is increased activity on OTC channels and in the creation/registration processes for regulated vehicles during the first half of 2025. The analysts we collaborate with also note that the nature and quality of flows (in-kind creations, order concentration, and persistence of entries) are determining factors for the sustainability of a price breakout.

Lee’s Outlook on Ethereum (ETH) Price: Why “Pro” Flows Might Intensify

According to Lee, the key element is the influx of institutional capital into digital assets with network utility. Ethereum, thanks to smart contracts, DeFi, NFTs, and Layer 2 solutions, remains the reference architecture for financial and tokenized applications. On the macro level, an evolving U.S. regulatory environment and the increasing use of regulated products – even with some operational details still to be defined after the approval of ETFs – have, in bull theses, the potential to amplify flows in the second half of the year.

An interesting aspect is the “multi-speed” nature of demand: on one hand, large investors seek exposure to ETH through regulated channels and OTC desks. On the other hand, on-chain adoption, between DeFi and tokenization, continues to provide signals of real usage. It should be noted that sensitivity to rates and liquidity remains high, but the perception of Ethereum as infrastructure for programmable finance favors a slow but steady normalization of institutional interest.

A frequently cited piece is the mass of stablecoin moving on Ethereum, with an overall sector capitalization that stands around $146 billion. This data underscores Ethereum’s function as a settlement infrastructure for the digital market. In this reading, stablecoin traffic is not only an indicator of activity but also a proxy for the demand for settlement and native financial services of the network.

The “BitMine” node and the large balances: what is verified and what is not

In recent weeks, rumors have circulated about an alleged accumulation of 1.72 million ETH by a company referred to as “BitMine.” At the moment, this information has not been confirmed by reports, filings, or official statements and should therefore be treated with due caution, as it is unverified information.

However, OTC flows and those detected through regulated vehicles remain documentable, with various desks reporting an increase compared to previous months, also in terms of rebalancing between BTC and ETH. It should be noted that, during the phases of trend building, institutional demand tends to manifest intermittently and often with strong temporal concentration.

Technical Levels: Demand Zones, Resistances, and Progressive Targets

The recent technical framework highlights an accumulation distributed across a wide price range and increasing market attention on multiple resistances. It is advisable to check, at the time of publication, the current price of ETH on platforms like CoinGecko for an updated context.

• Accumulation area: prolonged consolidation within an intermediate range, consistent with trend-building phases.
• Primary resistance: zone $4,950–$5,000, which represents a psychological and technical watershed for the expansion of the movement.
• Intermediate target: in the event of a confirmed breakout, a target in the $5,500 area constitutes a natural projection milestone.
• Supports: demand areas identifiable between $4,200 and $4,600, whose holding reduces the risk of a deep correction.

The confirmation of these levels depends on the strength of the volume during the breakout and the macro context. A clear and sustained surpassing of the resistances, accompanied by a significant capital rotation towards ETH, would increase the probability of further trend extensions. In this phase, the quality of the breakout (breadth, volumes, follow-through) matters almost as much as the price.

An aspect not to be overlooked is the volume structure in congestion areas: where the residual supply is scarce, the inertia can surprise to the upside; conversely, still dense supply clusters above recent highs make progressive confirmation indispensable, also to avoid false signals.

End-of-Year Scenarios: Base, Bull, and Risk

• Scenario base: gradual growth with high volatility; ETH consolidates above major resistances and progressively tests new highs, supported by ETF inflows and the adoption of Layer 2.
• Bull scenario: acceleration of institutional flows, expansion of on-chain activity (DeFi, tokenization, stablecoin) and a favorable regulatory climate; in this context, the hypothesis indicated by Tom Lee, with the target of $12,000, becomes more plausible.
• Risk scenario: macroeconomic shocks, regulatory tightening, cascading profit-taking, and breaking of key supports; in this case, the risk of retracements and prolonged ranges increases.

The probability distribution, as of today, remains sensitive to exogenous variables: rates, liquidity, and regulatory paths. An interesting aspect is the growing attention to the ETH/BTC ratio during risk-on phases: a sustained rotation BTC → ETH would be consistent with the more constructive scenario.

What the Desks Are Watching: “Pro” Signals and Points of Attention

• Net flows: inflows/outflows on spot ETFs and regulated products, OTC, and large addresses.
• Network usage: metrics such as fees, Layer 2 activity, value transferred, and DeFi data.
• Spread and correlations: BTC → ETH rotation, ETH/BTC ratio, and sector performance in the areas of DeFi, infrastructure, and real asset tokenization.
• Macro and policy: interest rate trajectory, system liquidity, regulatory processes, and strategic positioning of financial institutions.

In this context, the alignment of top-down signals (monetary policies) and bottom-up signals (network usage) tends to reduce noise and provide greater readability of the trend. It should be noted that the reading of flows, especially OTC, is not always immediate and requires triangulations with multiple sources.

Virality of the Topic: the “Ethereum Case” Divides the Market

The scenario at $12,000 continues to polarize the debate: according to the supporters, the combination of utility and regulated capital represents an underestimated catalyst so far; while the skeptics note that the valuation would already incorporate many elements of flawless execution, with open issues related to scalability, competition between Layer 1 and Layer 2, and regulatory risk. This tension between real adoption and a media-driven narrative could fuel lively social discussions in the coming weeks.

An interesting aspect is that the comparison is not only technical but cultural: ETH is perceived, alternatively, as “collateral” of the new finance and as a high beta asset of the crypto cycle. The narrative, for better or worse, affects short-term positioning.

Timeline and Upcoming Checkpoints

• Short term: confirmations or rejections of the breakout in the $4,950–$5,000 range, holding of supports, and volume dynamics.
• Mid-term: data related to ETF inflows, trends in fees and activity on Layer 2, as well as any regulatory developments both in the USA and Europe.
• End of year: assessment of the extended scenario with targets beyond $5,500 and the possibility of further milestones if sustained momentum is present.

In this trajectory, the sequence of events matters: first the technical confirmation, then the potential consolidation of inflows, and finally the expansion of on-chain activity. A coherent reading of these steps helps to separate the signal from the noise.

Conclusions

The bullish trajectory hypothesized by Tom Lee is based on three pillars: increasing institutional flows, growing demand for the use of the Ethereum network, and overcoming key technical resistances. The potential for an extended trend exists, but it remains contingent on data confirmation and the holding of supports. It must be said that the narrative alone is hardly sufficient: monitoring net flows, on-chain activity, and price action in the indicated areas can help distinguish between pure narrative and real execution.

Note: this content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendation.