Bulls Defend $110K but ETF Outflows Keep Pressure Ahead of Q4

Bitcoin is trading around $111,500, down marginally after testing the $110,900 zone on Wednesday. The latest pullback reflects a mix of seasonal weakness and persistent ETF outflows, keeping traders cautious ahead of September.

Historically, August and September have been among Bitcoin’s weakest months, with an average September return of –3.7%, according to Coinglass data. Yet the market narrative is split: some see this as a final shakeout before a strong Q4, while others fear deeper losses if support breaks.

With whale flows, sovereign mining developments, and technical levels converging, Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision point. The next few days could dictate whether bulls can stabilize above $110K or if sellers force a deeper correction.

Bitcoin Price Holds Firm Near Lower Channel Support

On the daily chart, BTC is holding the lower bound of its ascending channel, anchored around $110,800–111,000. This level also aligns with the 100-day EMA at $110,793, giving bulls a technical cushion.

Momentum, however, has weakened. The RSI sits at 41.8, reflecting bearish control after a slide from July highs. The MACD remains below the signal line, underscoring fading upside pressure. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is capped by a descending trendline near $113,900, with Supertrend resistance overhead.

Analysts on X highlight that BTC has now given back nearly 10% since early August, consistent with seasonal patterns. Trader @im_BrokeDoomer noted that “August and September are the worst performing months for Bitcoin. October and November are the best.” This seasonal map reinforces the risk that BTC may drift lower before a stronger Q4 recovery.

ETF Outflows and Whale Moves Pressure Sentiment

Flows remain negative. Data from Coinglass shows $35 million in net BTC outflows on August 27, extending a streak of red inflows throughout much of August. Persistent selling pressure from U.S. spot ETFs has limited upside follow-through, while long-liquidations continue to thin short-term bullish positioning.

Bitcoin dominance stands at 58%, holding steady as altcoins weaken further. This suggests risk appetite is contracting into BTC, but not with enough conviction to spark a rally. Instead, the dominance stability highlights defensive positioning across the market.

On the fundamental side, sovereign accumulation remains an emerging driver. The UAE recently confirmed reserves of 6,333 BTC (worth $700M) through Citadel Mining, part of a broader push to diversify wealth away from the U.S. dollar. This sovereign bid has long-term bullish implications, even as near-term ETF flows point in the opposite direction.

Contrasting Views: Bulls Eye $120K, Bears Warn of $108K

The bullish case hinges on BTC’s ability to defend the $110K handle and re-enter the mid-channel zone near $115K–118K. A decisive break of the descending trendline on the 4-hour chart would signal a potential push back toward $120K, the next psychological barrier.

Bears, however, argue that the repeated rejection near $114K and weakening RSI make a retest of $108K support increasingly likely. A break below $108K would expose the 200-day EMA at $103,800, a deeper line in the sand for long-term trend followers.

For now, market positioning suggests a balance: downside risk into September remains real, but macro flows from sovereign players and a potential seasonal recovery in Q4 keep longer-term sentiment constructive.

Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook: Range Trade Before September Test

Over the next 24 hours, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate between $110,000 and $113,500, reflecting indecision ahead of September flows. With RSI oversold conditions on lower timeframes, a short-term bounce is possible, but trendline resistance keeps rallies capped.

For the week ahead, traders should watch whether BTC can defend $110K. A firm rebound above $115K would open the door to $118K–120K, while failure risks a slide to $107K–108K. Seasonal data suggests volatility will rise, with September historically one of BTC’s weakest months.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Table

Bottom Line: Bitcoin price action remains pinned near the lower edge of its channel as ETF outflows and weak seasonality weigh on sentiment. While sovereign accumulation such as the UAE’s mining reserves offers long-term support, the short-term outlook points to choppy trading with downside risks into September before a potential recovery in Q4.