How New Running Back Contracts May Signal Fantasy Production

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 08: D’Andre Swift #4 of the Chicago Bears scores on a two-point conversion attempt after a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field on September 08, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

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The value of an NFL running back has been a popular offseason topic for the past several offseasons.

While the argument made by Saquon Barkely in favor of paying a premium for an elite running back has unfortunately been countered by the current status of Christian McCaffrey, whether fairly or not.

Regardless of where the total number falls for the position group, though, the amount teams invest in a particular halfback can be telling of how big an impact they expect that player to make in their offense.

Whether through free agency, the draft, trade, or in some team’s cases, the lack of free agents brought in, here are four running backs that may be tipping their hand at a breakout year.

Javonte Williams – Dallas Cowboys

For the first time since 2016, the Dallas Cowboys will have a backfield that does not feature Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard.

While that may be a shocking sign of loyalty for the position, given the least amount of loyalty shown by ownership, it also provides rationale for why the Cowboys have failed to have a top-10 rushing attack since 2022.

So, the Cowboys have attempted to revamp their backfield, with free agent signing Javonte Williams leading the way in 2025.

The Cowboys signed Williams to a 1-year, $3 million contract, which was the second-largest running back contract signed in free agency this past offseason.

His signing trailed just Najee Harris, who, in comparison, received nearly double the amount in terms of Average Annual Value (AAV). Harris also only received a one-year deal with the Chargers.

The justification between the two signings is apparent. Harris takes his consistent profile of four-straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons to a run-first offense.

Williams, on the other hand, is a flyer who could determine the success of the Cowboys’ season.

The 25-year-old joins Dallas after four years in Denver, where his efficiency has continued to fall after an impressive rookie campaign.

Rushing for 903 yards in 2021 despite splitting touches with Melvin Gordon made it seem as though Williams would become a bellcow for the Broncos.

After suffering a torn ACL in his sophomore season, Williams has failed to return to that level of production, dropping his yards per attempt to 3.6 over the past two seasons.

This is not all William’s fault, as the Broncos as a unit have failed to be above the league average as a rushing offense since his 2021 campaign.

So, in an offense that added George Pickens to their aerial attack of CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Jalen Tolbert, this change of scenery could see Williams return to form in a contract year.

This is because Williams at his best, he is a between-the-tackles runner who plays in a vertical threat scheme. This is an offense that Williams has yet to be a part of, and the last time the Cowboys had a running back of this pedigree, the Cowboys as a team produced the best fantasy production for a running back group in the NFL.

D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears

After an entire offseason that had rumors of the Chicago Bears as interested in making a change at running back, they still enter the upcoming season with the same two options in the backfield.

D’Andre Swift enters his second season in the Windy City and his sixth season in the NFL after he signed a three-year, $24 million contract to join the Bears.

Last year, Swift totaled 959 yards on the ground and 386 receiving yards, to give him an average of 4.6 yards per touch.

This level of play did come at his career-low in yards per attempt, which was 3.8 as compared to his career average of 4.6 entering last year.

However, the first sign that Swift could be a valuable member of a fantasy football roster is due to his upcoming reconnection with Ben Johnson, who was his offensive coordinator in 2022.

While only playing 14 games and being the secondary option behind Jamaal Williams, amid a league-leading 17 touchdown campaign, Swift averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 99 attempts. He also received 70 targets out of the flat, going for 8.1 yards per catch and scoring three times after the reception.

Even with that lack of volume over the season, Swift still finished with the 23rd-most fantasy points for all running backs, all while having the least amount of games played on that top-25 list.

Roschon Johnson will likely take the bruiser role for the tandem; however fantasy owners will not have to worry about Johnson becoming the lead back like Williams was in 2022, as the third-year back has yet to see over 100 attempts in a season thus far.

While Ben Johnson has been known for his creative play designs or his ability to unlock the full potential of Jared Goff, the basis of Johnson’s scheme is predicated on the offensive line and the ability to establish the run.

With the signing of two draft picks, Drew Dalman at center, and two draft picks to add to the depth of the offensive line, the Bears’ front five should be improved from the season prior.

Even if the Bears fail to replicate the dominance of Detroit’s blockers, Swift still adds value as a receiver out of the backfield as Williams looks to improve entering season number two.

Brian Robinson Jr. – San Francisco 49ers

In an unexpected move from both parties, the San Francisco 49ers traded former Washington Commanders Brian Robinson Jr. for a sixth-round pick. Additionally, the Commanders will retain $1.25 million of the $2.156 he is owed for the final year of his rookie contract.

While this seems like a zero-risk trade for the 49ers, there is an investment being made into the former Alabama running back.

For one, he is the insurance for both McCaffrey and third-string running back Isaac Guerendo, for different reasons.

McCaffrey’s health determines the success of the 49ers’ season. Guerendo, who was expected to develop into the second running back option after the departure of Jordan Mason, seem not to be ready for that role yet.

The addition of Robinson initially gives him the role of RB2, which is still a lucrative position in terms of fantasy production for a team like the 49ers.

This, with the potential of Robinson filling in at primary running back following any injuries to CMC, can make him a lucrative option in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts.

So, with the safe assumption that McCaffrey will not be used as a bellcow running back even if he remains healthy throughout the season, the 49ers coaching staff will be aggressive with their use of their newest acquisition.

Especially when Robinson and Mason are compared head-to-head since they began their careers in 2022.

Robinson leads Mason in all statistical categories besides yards per carry, where the current Viking leads him by 1.2.

This is due to Robinson seeing over double the amount of total attempts, all with a significantly worse offensive line, giving Robinson 2,329 career yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground.

Robinson can also be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield, with 65 catches, 587 yards, and 5 touchdowns after the catch.

A player of Robinson’s category in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, who has lost Deebo Samuel alongside Mason, could be one of the best RB2 options in this year’s draft.

So, this is how the contractual trends of this NFL offseason can impact some lesser-discussed options at the running back position.

Javonte Williams’ change of scenery, D’Andre Swift’s reunion with a familiar play-caller, and Brian Robinson Jr.’s arrival in a running-back-friendly system each highlight how opportunity can outweigh positional market trends.

While teams may be reluctant to hand out long-term deals, these backs are reminders that the right fit at the right time can still make a running back one of the most important difference-makers on the field — and in fantasy football lineups this fall.