Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is under scrutiny: the halving-driven pattern is less certain now due to spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buying, which may dampen volatility and weaken the historical post-halving crash—but some on-chain indicators still mirror past cycles, so outcomes remain undecided.
ETF inflows and institutional custody are changing holder composition and reducing tail volatility.
Some on-chain metrics and capital flow data still resemble prior four-year cycles.
Price: Bitcoin hit a new record in August 2025; year-to-date gains exceed 20% amid broader macro influences.
Bitcoin four-year cycle questioned as ETFs shift holder base and volatility; read expert analysis and actionable takeaways.
Will Bitcoin stick to its usual four-year cycle?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle historically aligns with the halving rhythm, but recent structural changes—most notably January 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF approvals—have altered investor composition and capital flows, potentially weakening the halving-driven cycle while elevating demand- and macro-driven price dynamics.
How have spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buyers changed the market?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs opened large pools of previously sidelined capital, bringing more long-term, regulated custodians into the ecosystem. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that “more stable owners, more stable price.” Institutions such as universities and major financial firms now hold Bitcoin primarily for long-term exposure.
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Some analytics providers report that price action and realized profit metrics echo prior cycles. CoinGlass (plain text) highlighted capital inflow fatigue and long-term holder profit-taking at levels comparable to earlier euphoric phases—signals historically preceding corrections.
Halving impacts supply-side incentives by reducing miner rewards roughly every four years. However, the price effect from halving appears to be diminishing as demand-side variables gain importance.
Greater integration with traditional finance means macro events, ETF flows, and long-term institutional allocations now have outsized influence compared with miner-driven scarcity alone.
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Source: https://en.coinotag.com/experts-split-on-whether-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-could-continue-after-etf-driven-rally/