This cycle has held remarkably consistent, becoming an investor’s “market clock.” Yet the current cycle may not fit neatly into this template.
I. Are We at the End of the Bull Market? The Old Four-Year Cycle
Looking back at Bitcoin’s price history, there seems to be an “iron law” of four-year cycles:
- December 2013: bull market peak;
- December 2017: bull market peak;
- November 2021: bull market peak.
This cycle has held remarkably consistent, becoming an investor’s “market clock.” Yet the current cycle may not fit neatly into this template. While Bitcoin has indeed surged from its bottom, whether this marks the beginning of another bull market top remains far from certain.
II. Institutional Capital: Breaking Away from Retail-Driven Cycles
Previous cycles were dominated by retail investor sentiment, characterized by extreme volatility. The current cycle, however, is fundamentally different, with institutional capital reshaping the structure of the market:
- ETF flows redefining liquidity: The approval of spot ETFs has made capital entry more convenient and transparent. Institutional trading behavior tends to be more rational, with smoother profit-taking and less panic-driven volatility.
- Rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Institutions like BlackRock and others now hold a combined $15.8 billion across Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, accounting for 10% of BTC ETF market cap. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $12.45 billion in Q2, representing nearly 97% of net inflows.
The shift signals a transformation from “retail sentiment-driven” markets to “institutional capital flow-driven” cycles.
III. 401(k) Pensions: Opening the Automatic Capital Pipeline
On August 7, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Labor to revise rules to allow cryptocurrency investments within 401(k) pension plans.
- Massive capital pool: 401(k) plans represent $8.7 trillion in assets. If even 5% flows into crypto, that could inject up to $400 billion.
- Impact comparable to ETFs: If spot ETFs opened the door for institutional money, 401(k)s represent an “automated pipeline,” channeling steady, long-term capital into crypto markets.
- Policy signal: If self-directed pensions can access crypto, could even larger government-managed pension funds eventually follow?
This move could trigger structural change in crypto markets, potentially breaking the four-year cycle “destiny.”
IV. The Rise of RWA: Real-World Assets on the Blockchain
Beyond ETFs and pensions, Real-World Assets (RWA) are emerging as a key narrative in 2025:
- Market trajectory:
- 2017: RWA concept emerged, focusing on real estate and art.
- 2021: DeFi protocols (e.g., MakerDAO) integrated RWAs for collateralized lending.
- 2023: RWA market size surpassed $5 billion; Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton launched tokenized products.
- 2025: BlackRock and Goldman Sachs accelerate large-scale RWA deployments.
- Future projections:
- BCG: $16 trillion tokenized asset market by 2030.
- Citi: $4–5 trillion range.
- 21.co: $3.5–10 trillion.
By lowering entry barriers and improving liquidity, RWA tokenization can funnel long-term capital into crypto and support real-economy financing.
V. Hong Kong’s RWA Regulation and Practice
Hong Kong has taken a regulatory lead in Asia:
- 2019: SFC declared most STOs likely fall under securities law.
- 2023: SFC issued guidance for intermediaries, building a dual-track framework of “financial asset first, technology second.”
Key features:
- Mature legal foundation: RWAs with securities attributes already regulated under the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
- Progressive openness: Relaxation of restrictions beyond professional investors.
- Practical focus: Emphasis on tokenized green energy and infrastructure financing.
Hong Kong is well-positioned to become Asia’s RWA and Web3 testing ground.
In June 2025, Hong Kong-listed company MemeStrategy purchased 2,440 SOL tokens (worth approximately HK$2.9 million), becoming the first Hong Kong-listed firm to take a position in Solana — a move that underscores the growing recognition of Web3 assets among traditional Asian financial institutions.
Earlier, Hong Kong’s capital markets had already begun exploring the Web3 sector. In March 2023, COOL LINK (08491.HK) announced the acquisition of a 4.54% stake in Blissful Link, the developer behind the Web3 gaming project Capverse, for HK$17.8 million. The following month, Roma Meta Group (08072.HK) also invested, purchasing a 0.32% stake in the same company.
Capverse, a Hong Kong-based Web3 gaming brand, is reshaping blockchain gaming by shifting from “Play-to-Earn” to “Play-and-Earn.”
- Product: NFT-based strategy game on BNB Chain, with 15,000+ active users.
- Gameplay: PVE adventures, PVP battles, strategy-rich pet cultivation, and mini-games.
- Economic model: Combines tokens + points + consumption + AI-based macro controls to prevent collapse (“death spiral”) common in earlier GameFi projects.
- Community: Focused on loyalty and engagement over unsustainable user spikes.
Capverse’s governance token $CAP has already been listed on MEXC, LBank, and Toobit exchanges, signaling traction in both product and capital markets.
VI. Conclusion: Old Cycle or New Paradigm?
The four-year Bitcoin cycle once seemed unbreakable, but new forces are emerging:
- Institutional capital introduces sustained inflows;
- 401(k) pensions may provide steady “long streams” of capital;
- RWA tokenization offers a powerful new growth narrative;
- Hong Kong’s regulatory and capital markets are fueling Asian Web3 adoption.
This bull market may not simply repeat past emotional cycles. Instead, it could represent the beginning of a structural financial shift and deeper integration between crypto, traditional finance, and the real economy.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/has-the-crypto-bull-run-peaked-from-four-year-cycles-to-institutional-capital-rwa-and-the-new-web3-landscape/