Are Gas Prices Falling Because U.S. Oil Production Is Surging?

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 08: U.S. President Donald Trump holds an executive orders after signing a series of orders on American energy production during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House on April 08, 2025 in Washington, DC. The Trump administration has elected to roll back Biden-era environmental policies with the intention to help revive coal-fired plants in order to restore America’s energy independence. Trump was joined by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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Simple answers are easy, but often wrong. The real ones take context, and a little more work. Below I provide the context for the question in the title, if you put in the work to read and understand.

I was recently forwarded a link to a story at an NBC affiliate in Montana–’Drill, baby, drill’: Gas prices might drop below $3 by end of 2025–that purports to connect the recent drop in gasoline prices with President Trump’s pro-energy policies.

The first line of the article states: “There has recently been a surge in oil and gas production thanks to President Donald Trump’s pro-energy policies.”

Before we zoom in on recent oil production, it may be helpful to step back and look at the major oil production events of the past 24 years, shown in the following graphic.

There were many events that have impacted oil production since 2000. During President George W. Bush’s two terms, oil production continued the gradual decline that had been ongoing since the early 1970s. However, oil and gas producers were perfecting the marriage of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which would usher in the “shale boom”, or “fracking boom” that would soon follow. The price of oil steadily rose during Bush’s presidency–cracking $100 a barrel in February 2008–and that provided significant economic incentive for the fracking boom.

President Obama’s two terms oversaw the largest expansion of U.S. oil and natural gas production in history. Even though Obama was largely seen as being hostile to oil and gas, technology and market forces were the most significant factors in driving oil production higher during his presidency.

One exception during his term took place in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia led OPEC in increasing output despite falling prices, aiming to undercut U.S. shale producers and defend market share. This led to an oil price collapse in 2015 and 2016 from over $100 to below $30 per barrel. U.S. shale producers ultimately cut costs and improved efficiency, but U.S. oil production was negatively impacted for a while.

Nevertheless, by November 2016 it was clear that the U.S. shale industry would survive, so OPEC changed course and reached a landmark agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). This marked the end of the price war and the birth of the OPEC+ alliance. It also subsequently led to a price recovery, and a rebound of U.S. oil production growth.

President Trump took office in January 2017, and oil production returned to the growth mode seen during Obama’s first seven years in office. Producers broke the previous monthly oil production record set in 1970 in October of Trump’s first year in office. Trump did pass pro-oil policies, but the OPEC+ production cuts that began raising oil prices were the biggest factor that returned growth back to pre-OPEC price war levels.

Often lost in the discussion is that as a result of rising oil prices, the average gasoline price in the U.S. actually increased during Trump’s first three years in office–until the COVID-19 pandemic arrived.

The pandemic famously collapsed both oil prices–which briefly turned negative as stay-at-home orders were implemented–and oil production, which dropped by a staggering 3 million barrels per day in April and May 2020. When people fondly remember gasoline prices that dropped below $2.00 a gallon under President Trump, that was the only time it happened.

When President Biden assumed office in January 2021, oil production had recovered back to 11.2 million bpd, which was still 1.8 million bpd below the pre-pandemic peak. But oil production growth would resume in Biden’s second year. In each of his last two years in office, the U.S. would again set production records for both oil and natural gas production. Oil production growth was significantly helped by the price surge that took place in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, demonstrating once again the power of macro factors to move production (although Biden also made decisions that had an impact on oil prices).

Before we zoom in on President Trump’s second term to date, let’s review. There have been major factors moving the oil markets over the past 24 years, but few of them are related to actions by a president. It is true that Presidents Obama and Biden passed clean energy policies and were generally hostile to oil and gas production. Nevertheless, Obama presided over the greatest expansion of oil and gas production in U.S. history, while Biden oversaw production records in natural gas all four years he was in office, and oil production records his last two years in office.

Note that this isn’t to give credit but rather highlight the importance of macro factors in setting oil prices and influencing oil production. Yes, each president, including President Trump, passed policies that likely had some impact on oil and gas production. But those policies usually have relatively small impacts against macro factors like a fracking boom or an OPEC price war. An exception one could argue would be the long-term implications of fracking that were primarily developed under George W. Bush.

President Trump’s Second Term “Surge”

Returning to the claim from the NBC affiliate, let’s zoom in on the first seven months of President Trump’s second term, and contrast this with President Biden’s term. If there is a surge, we should see it in the following graphic, which starts in February 2021–Biden’s first full month in office–and extends through mid-August 2025. Supporting data can be found at the EIA here and here.

The first thing to note is that there are a number of weather-related impacts. The jump right at the beginning of Biden’s term was recovery from the impacts of Winter Storm Uri. Thus, the initial surge was really just bouncing back to where production was just before the storm. Likewise, in January 2024, a severe winter storm drastically slashed oil production in Texas. And in January 2025, cold weather once again negatively impacted production in North Dakota and Texas. Following each of these events, production bounced back.

The first full month of President Trump’s second term was February 2025. Production rebounded that month from the previous decline, as it had following previous bad weather events. But even if you want to give President Trump credit for the February bump–when his policies hadn’t had time to take effect–there’s still no surge when viewed over the course of the past 4.5 years. In fact, you see significantly larger “surges” during several periods of Biden’s presidency.

Oil production in 2023 under Biden set a record that was 7.9% higher than 2022 production, and 5.0% higher than the previous 2019 record under Trump. The new record in 2024 was 2.1% higher than in 2023. Production did rise slightly to a new monthly record in March 2025, and 2025 year-to-date production is running about 2.0% ahead of last year’s record pace (although it has fallen over the past two months). So, indeed we are on pace to set a new oil production record this year, but the pace of production is slowing. There’s certainly no surge as claimed.

Further, the NBC article linked previously cites former White House economic advisor Steve Moore as stating, “Trump is into, as you called it, ‘Drill, baby, drill,’ and we’re seeing some of the fruits of that.”

In fact, the number of rigs drilling for oil has steadily fallen this year, which is the exact opposite of what Moore implies. He is correct that we are likely to set another production record this year, but it should be clear from the graphics that this is a continuation of a long-term trend that appears to be slowing.

Note that I didn’t address natural gas, but the trends are much the same. Production has grown steadily since about 2005, and we will likely set another production record this year, but there has been no surge at any point.

Why Are Gasoline Prices Falling?

Gasoline prices have slipped noticeably this year, tracking the broader decline in crude oil. That’s raised a familiar political talking point: some Trump supporters insist the drop is thanks to a surge in drilling unleashed by the president’s policies. As we have seen, there has been no surge. The reality is more complicated. Energy markets are global, and prices move according to supply, demand, and inventories—factors that rarely hinge on the occupant of the White House.

The biggest driver right now is surging global supply. OPEC+ announced that it will fully unwind its 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by September 2025—a full year earlier than planned. At the same time, non-OPEC producers like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana continue to ramp up output. Altogether, global supply is set to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, outpacing demand and putting clear downward pressure on prices.

On the demand side, growth has been softer than expected. Consumption in China, India, and Brazil has underwhelmed, while in the OECD countries, demand is essentially flat. Japan is hitting multi-decade lows, and U.S. GDP growth has slowed to just 1.4%, which has translated into weaker fuel consumption at home.

Finally, oil inventories are swelling. Stockpiles have risen for five straight months, hitting a 46-month high of 7.8 billion barrels worldwide. Rising inventories are a textbook sign of oversupply, and history shows that sustained builds like this often precede sharper price declines.

In short, today’s lower gasoline prices aren’t the result of any single politician’s actions. They’re the outcome of a global supply surge colliding with tepid demand growth and rising stockpiles. The political spin may be irresistible, but the market forces at work are far larger than any administration.

It’s worth noting that in the past, falling oil prices were a clear win for the U.S. economy. Back in 2005, the country imported around 12.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, so cheaper oil meant a smaller import bill and more money in consumers’ pockets.

But the U.S. has since flipped from being the world’s largest importer to a net exporter of crude and refined products. That changes the calculus. Lower oil prices still benefit consumers at the pump, but they also strain one of America’s most important industries, reduce export revenues, and widen the trade deficit. For a country that now relies on energy exports as a pillar of economic strength, cheap oil is a double-edged sword.

Conclusion

It’s tempting to give too much credit or blame to a president for what’s happening at the pump. But the reality is that gasoline prices are dictated by forces much bigger than any one administration. Technological shifts like fracking, geopolitical decisions by OPEC+, weather disruptions, and global demand trends shape oil markets far more decisively than executive orders or campaign slogans.

That doesn’t mean policy is irrelevant—it can tilt the playing field at the margins. But the recent slide in prices is a reminder that energy is a global business, and the U.S. is both a beneficiary and a casualty of its volatility. Consumers welcome relief at the gas station, yet as an energy-exporting nation, we also absorb the downside of weaker prices.

The bottom line: partisans may spin the price of gasoline, but the true story lies in the global interplay of supply, demand, and investment. And that story is always bigger—and more complicated—than Washington.