Bearish momentum but RSI near oversold – OCBC

Kiwi fell post-RBNZ policy decision. NZD last seen at 0.5820 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bearish momentum on daily chart intact

“OCR was reduced to 3%, as widely anticipated but the tone of the press conference and MPS was notably more dovish than expected. MPC voted 4-2 for 25bp cut, and the 2 members had voted for 50bp cut. OCR projection was also lowered to 2.55% in 1Q 2026. OIS futures pricing in 40bp cut by end of 2025. There are 2 more meetings remaining for the year – Oct and Nov before the long break to February 2026 MPC meeting.”

“Governor Hawkesby stressed on the ‘strong consensus around the central path for the OCR’. While the RBNZ’s dovish cut and lower OCR track reinforces a downside bias for NZD, the magnitude of the move will hinge on the USD leg. With Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday night likely to shape Fed easing expectations into September, we see scope for NZD/USD to test lower if the USD stays firm, but retracement risks if Powell leans dovish.”

“Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI shows signs of entering oversold conditions. Support at 0.58 (50% fibo retracement of Apr low to Jul high), 0.5730 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 0.5830 (200 DMA), 0.5880 (38.2% fibo).”