BTC “Buy the Fear” Signal Flashes Before Powell’s Speech

• Bitcoin’s two largest 2025 trading volume spikes marked both the April bottom and August top.
• Santiment data shows $84B volume during tariff-driven dip and $90.9B at the all-time high.
• Binance’s taker buy/sell ratio has dropped to cycle lows, signaling contrarian buying potential.

Bitcoin’s two largest weekly trading volume surges of 2025 may have already defined the key turning points of this cycle, according to new data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment. 

The data shows how massive spikes in Bitcoin trading volume perfectly coincided with both a tariff-driven market bottom in April and the recent climb to a fresh all-time high of $124,290 in mid-August.

How Two Volume Spikes Marked the Top and Bottom

Santiment’s chart reveals Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume peaked at $84.08 billion during the first week of April as markets sold off sharply. That moment of peak capitulation marked the cycle’s bottom, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally.

The second and larger surge came during the week of August 12, when Bitcoin’s trading volume hit $90.90 billion as prices reached a record $124,290. That spike, Santiment noted, was a classic “top signal” that preceded the recent 10% correction.

Contrarian Signals in Derivatives Market

With the market now in a cool-off, analyst Darkfost has pointed out that the taker buy-sell ratio on Binance, a key metric measuring buying versus selling pressure, has slumped to 0.95, its lowest level this cycle. This indicates that sentiment in the derivatives market is heavily bearish. A ratio above 1 suggests strong buy-side dominance, while readings below 1 reflect bearish sentiment in the order book. 

Yet, history shows these moments of extreme bearishness often present the best contrarian opportunities. This is especially true when contrasted with the long-term view, as institutional demand remains at all-time highs, raising the question for U.S Spot Bitcoin ETF Holdings Hits ATH of 1.25M: What Do They Know?

According to Darkfost, each time the ratio dropped significantly, it set up excellent buying opportunities. The market tends to move against the majority, and right now, sentiment is leaning heavily bearish, read a post.

Volatility Looms Ahead of Jackson Hole Conference

Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell to $112,350, its lowest level in nearly two months, briefly pushing the Fear & Greed Index to 44, a “fear” reading. But a recovery to $114,500 on Thursday has brought the index back to neutral territory at 50.

Macro uncertainty also remains a key driver. The total crypto market cap has recovered to $3.96 trillion, but traders are bracing for Friday’s Jackson Hole conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone could spark sharp moves.

Markets currently price in an 82% chance of a September rate cut, according to CME’s Fed Watch tool, though expectations have been slipping. Analysts note that if Powell hints at patience, risk assets could turn further bearish.

Related: The Same Analyst Who Called XRP’s Top Says It’s Now Time to Buy the Dip