“I Was Wrong To Predict Bitcoin Would Crash”: Harvard Economist Says

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff admits he was wrong about Bitcoin, which broke $124,000 after he predicted it would crash to $100.

Seven years ago, in 2018, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff said Bitcoin was far more likely to crash to $100 than ever reach $100,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 price level and has even hit $124,000..

The cryptocurrency not only survived the scepticism over the years, but it has also cemented itself as one of the world’s largest assets.

Rogoff has now admitted that his prediction was wrong in a post on X. He explained that he underestimated three factors, including regulation, competition with fiat currencies, and the willingness of regulators to hold crypto themselves. 

Why Kenneth Rogoff Thought Bitcoin Would Fail

At the time of Rogoff’s prediction, Bitcoin was trading around $11,000 after falling from its previous high of $20,000.

Rogoff believed that stricter U.S. regulation would drive the price down further. He even argued that Bitcoin had no value beyond its use in money laundering and tax evasion.

Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax…

— Kenneth S Rogoff (@krogoff) August 19, 2025

Soon after Rogoff’s prediction, Bitcoin collapsed to $3,000, and the drop seemed to confirm his view. Rogoff, who is a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and author of several books on finance, stood firm in his warning. 

For years, he even repeated that governments would not allow Bitcoin to grow unchecked.

Bitcoin’s Rise Above $124,000

That prediction fell apart when Bitcoin hit $124,400 in August. The cryptocurrency has now grown over 1,000% since Rogoff’s warning and ranks as the seventh largest asset in the world, with a market cap above $1.2 trillion.

The climb came from a mix of retail enthusiasm and large institutional support.

MICROSTRATEGY BOUGHT 442 MORE $BTC WORTH $51M!

Saylor is planning to buy even more in next 1-2 month

This will bring HUGE liquidity inflow into crypto

Here is how it affects market and what their strategy is🧵👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/02gQOptoKY

— Astro (@crptAstro) August 20, 2025

Companies like MicroStrategy have been leading the charge by adding billions in Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Even Harvard University’s endowment fund itself recently invested $116 million in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF this year.

Rogoff Explains What He Miscalculated

Rogoff admitted in August that he had been wrong for three reasons.

First, he miscalculated the regulation. He expected the U.S. to be harsher on Bitcoin than it is. Instead, policy has changed strongly after Donald Trump’s election win. New rules like the GENIUS Act have so far created a more favourable environment for crypto businesses. 

Even the SEC turned more open to digital assets and approved several Bitcoin ETFs.

Second, he underestimated Bitcoin’s role in the underground economy. He assumed cash would remain the dominant tool for illegal transactions. While crypto-related crime did reach $50 billion over the last year, it is still less than 1% of what is laundered using cash. 

Bitcoin also became a lifeline in countries suffering from inflation and currency collapse.

Third, Rogoff did not predict regulators and leaders holding Bitcoin themselves. Trump’s crypto portfolio is now worth around $1.6 billion, according to Arkham Intelligence. His media company also holds over $2 billion in tokens. 

To Rogoff, this showed a conflict of interest that he had not considered when making his prediction.

Reactions From the Crypto Industry

Rogoff’s admission drew quick responses from the crypto community. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said Rogoff failed to imagine that a defi project could succeed at scale.

David Lawant from FalconX thanked Rogoff indirectly. He said the economist’s book “The Curse of Cash” was so unconvincing that it pushed him to invest in Bitcoin.

Matthew Sigel of VanEck ranked Rogoff ninth on his list of Bitcoin’s loudest critics and said that Rogoff had written the cryptocurrency’s obituary too early from inside an echo chamber. 

Overall, Bitcoin’s future remains brighter than ever before, with current predictions of the asset hitting $1 million within the next decade.