VanEck Reaffirms $180K Year-End Price Target for Bitcoin

VanEck, a prominent crypto ETF issuer, has reaffirmed its $180,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 in its latest “Bitcoin ChainCheck” report authored by analysts Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel.  The investment firm cited a blend of strong institutional inflows, resilient miner economics, and encouraging derivatives data as core drivers of its bullish stance.

New Mid-August 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck blog is out. We reaffirm our $180K year-end target. 🔗https://t.co/mhM9cR2u6f

— VanEck (@vaneck_us) August 18, 2025

Bitcoin’s new all-time high was driven by rising institutional demand

In early August, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $124,000, briefly surpassing July’s record of $123,838. The rally came as 92% of on-chain BTC holdings remained in profit, suggesting strong investor conviction. CME futures basis funding rates soared to 9% (the highest since February), signaling heightened speculative interest.

Institutional players continued to increase their exposure. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) added a combined 126,000 BTC in July alone. Despite a slight dip in BTC dominance due to Ethereum’s gains, the broader market momentum remains tilted in Bitcoin’s favor, VanEck noted.

Derivatives signal bullish positioning

Options markets have also tilted strongly bullish. The call/put ratio climbed to 3.21x (the highest since June 2024), with $792 million spent on call premiums in the past month. Although implied volatility dropped to just 32%, below the 50% one-year average, VanEck suggests that this suppressed volatility could set the stage for sharp price moves as market activity resumes in the fall.

U.S. miners expand as sector consolidates

The mining sector has shown significant growth, with the global hashrate hitting a record 902 EH/s and revenue per EH/s reaching $59,400, the highest since December 2024. U.S.-listed miners now control 31.5% of global hashrate, a new high. Notably, TeraWulf (WULF) secured a 200MW AI hosting deal with Fluidstack, positioning itself as a hybrid BTC and AI compute infrastructure provider.

While equity performance among miners was mixed, with Applied Digital (APLD) surging ~54% and Cipher Mining (CIFR) declining ~22%, VanEck views the sector’s expansion as a positive signal of underlying strength.

Risks remain, but bullish momentum intact

Despite the optimism, VanEck acknowledged several risk factors. A persistently low-volatility environment may restrict the capital-raising ability of DATs, potentially leading to further mNAV compression. Additionally, large outstanding options positions could exacerbate price swings through dealer hedging if volatility picks up.

Still, the firm remains confident:

“Macroeconomic developments and seasonal investor re-engagement could either extend Bitcoin’s momentum or prompt profit-taking. Still, we stick with our $180K BTC price target by year-end.”

VanEck’s outlook underscores a growing belief among institutional players that Bitcoin could significantly appreciate in the coming months, buoyed by maturing market infrastructure and broader adoption.