Crypto analytics firm Alphractal has cautioned that Bitcoin could be entering a fragile phase as short-term investors ramp up high-risk accumulation.
According to the firm’s latest data, the realized price for short-term holders has climbed above $107,000 — a level now seen as critical for market stability.
Alphractal noted that these investors, who have been building positions since 2022, are buying at elevated prices compared to previous cycles. This, the firm said, increases the risk of larger unrealized losses and leaves the market more vulnerable to sharp corrections.
A dip below $107,000 could trigger widespread liquidations, with many exchanges holding significant pools of leveraged long positions just under that threshold. Alphractal described Bitcoin’s recent surge to $124,000 as a “classic bull trap,” driven by market makers seeking liquidity, and warned that traders who chased the rally are now under pressure.
Still, the firm added a silver lining: historically, similar conditions of fear and forced selling have marked some of the best opportunities for disciplined accumulation.
Price Scenarios Around $107K
- Bullish case: If Bitcoin holds above $107,000 and regains momentum, the market could stabilize and push back toward the $120,000–$124,000 zone. A breakout above that level would re-ignite bullish sentiment, potentially paving the way for a move toward $135,000 later this year.
- Base case: Bitcoin may continue consolidating between $107,000 and $120,000 as short-term investors unwind positions and new buyers step in. This range-bound action would mirror past mid-cycle phases, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact.
- Bearish case: A decisive break below $107,000 could trigger heavy liquidations and a wave of market pessimism. In that scenario, Bitcoin could slide toward $100,000 or even $95,000 before finding meaningful support.
Outlook
Alphractal’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is at a pivotal crossroads. While short-term weakness could drive further volatility, long-term investors may see any dip below $107,000 as an attractive entry point, echoing past cycles where fear eventually set the stage for the next leg higher.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-rally-under-fire-as-analysts-see-trouble-ahead/