Bitcoin STH Selling At Loss Ahead of FOMC Minutes: BTC Price To $100K?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) sold at a loss as BTC price remains shaky ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
• Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $121.7 million outflows, indicating institutions are also selling.
• Analysts predicted Bitcoin price crash as multiple indicators signaled a peak and drop in sentiment.

Bitcoin bulls and bears fight to gain control as sentiment looked balanced, while BTC price moves range-bound near the $115K level. Experts suggest keeping an eye on another drop in price to $112,000 support level.

The FOMC Minutes release this week could set market direction for the week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely remain hawkish on Fed rate cuts this year.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Selling at Loss

Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) were last forced into selling at a loss during January this year. The period recorded the deepest correction of this cycle.

Since then, the crypto market has largely recovered, with 99% of holders in profit as BTC price continued to hit ATH after surpassing $100K.

CryptoQuant data on August 19 showed short-term holders are selling at a loss for the first time since January’s downfall.

Notably, the STH-SOPR metric slipped below 1, indicating short-term investors are realizing losses once again.

This signals two possible scenarios for BTC price in the coming months. It could mean weakening upside momentum amid massive profit booking or flushing out weak hands to clear the path for bulls.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Outflows

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $121.7 million outflows on Monday, indicating a shift in sentiment among institutional investors.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded $68.7 million in outflow and Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw $65.7 million in selloffs. Whereas, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw $12.7 million in inflow.

Further outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs would confirm negative sentiment among investors in the United States.

While Coinbase Premium Gap remained positive, profit takers jumped almost 5.4% from 1.73 million to 1.83 million BTC. This was the largest spike year-to-date (YTD), according to Glassnode data.

Some investors believe it’s time to lock in gains and take BTC bullish bets off the table. Glassnode data revealed that holders selling at a loss spiked more than 37.8% over the past 5 days.

Traders Await FOMC Minutes Release: BTC Price Anticipation Builds

Matrixport said the Jackson Hole event will not have any impact, considering it more of a discussion forum than a market mover.

The September 17 FOMC meeting remains the most significant catalyst, with traders eyeing the FOMC Minutes release for seeking cues on the crypto market direction.

As The Coin Republic reported earlier, traders turned cautious after the US PPI inflation jumped 0.9% in July, raising core PPI inflation to 3.7%.

At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool showed nearly 83% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September. Also, traders now predict odds of two rate cuts this year instead of three, after the latest hotter PPI inflation.

Notably, a poll by BTC stock-to-flow model creator PlanB hints at high odds of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000.

Crypto analysts, including Rekt Capital, expect a Bitcoin price crash similar to 29% in 2017 and 25% in 2021. However, he expects a shallower and quicker fall in this cycle as compared to previous cycles.

Bitcoin price was trading at $115,629 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour low and high of $114,470 and $117,050, respectively. Trading volume was down by 2.4% in the last 24 hours.