For years, Bitcoin traders have leaned on the four-year cycle model to anticipate bull and bear markets.
But with Bitcoin repeatedly breaking records in 2025 and institutional investors reshaping the landscape, many argue that the familiar playbook no longer applies.
The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 brought in a wave of new capital from Wall Street and retirement accounts, adding layers of unpredictability that weren’t present in earlier cycles. Some analysts believe this shift has weakened the traditional “halving-driven” rhythm of the market.
Yet not everyone is ready to abandon the idea. One market watcher, posting under the name of economist Frank Fetter, recently highlighted data suggesting the cycle theory could still hold. According to their analysis, Bitcoin may be entering its final stretch before reaching a potential peak.
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100 Days to a Possible Top?
The analyst compared Bitcoin’s past performance across previous cycles with the current one. In the 2015–2018 run, BTC surged 110x over 1,068 days. Between 2018 and 2022, it rose 21x, peaking 1,060 days after the cycle low.
Today, the market sits roughly 997 days from its last bottom, with Bitcoin already up 7.3x since then. If history repeats, the next 100 days could mark the run-up to another cycle top, hinting at one more leg higher before momentum fades.
Breaking the Pattern
Of course, if Bitcoin maintains its rally beyond this timeframe, it could signal something bigger: the end of the traditional cycle model altogether. That scenario would suggest a structural shift toward longer bull markets and shorter pullbacks, reflecting Bitcoin’s growing maturity and adoption in global finance.
Either way, the coming months may prove pivotal in deciding whether the cycle theory is living on borrowed time—or ready for a final encore.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-faces-crucial-test-as-market-nears-next-milestone/