Bitcoin’s next major move could be decided by its performance relative to gold, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone.
The analyst warned that the cryptocurrency is hovering near a crucial threshold that has historically signaled market turning points.
The 35-Ounce Gold Barrier
McGlone highlighted the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which currently stands around 35 ounces of gold per BTC — the same level that coincided with Bitcoin’s peak in 2021. He cautioned that failure to hold above this mark could drive investors toward safer assets like U.S. Treasuries, which he called the “next big trade.”
“If Bitcoin backs down from roughly 35 ounces of gold,” McGlone said, it may pave the way for a rally in bonds, with Treasury yields potentially sliding toward 1.75%, a pattern he compared to recent moves in China’s markets.
Crossroads for Risk Assets
While Bitcoin has shown strength compared to equities — the BTC-to-S&P 500 ratio sits near 18.3 — McGlone argued that the gold threshold is more significant for long-term positioning. A breakout above it could reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a high-beta risk asset, while a stall or reversal may foreshadow broader weakness in both crypto and equities.
Uncertain Outlook Into Late 2025
The strategist emphasized that the Bitcoin-gold standoff reflects wider macro uncertainty, from inflation and central bank policies to geopolitical stress. Should Bitcoin extend its advantage over gold, it could signal renewed investor confidence. If not, capital may rotate toward bonds and defensive assets, setting the tone for the rest of 2025.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-at-a-crossroads-can-it-hold-the-line-against-gold/