The San Diego Padres Have Caught And Passed The Dodgers For First Place

The San Diego Padres have been playing great baseball, and now find themselves in first place ahead of their rivals to the north, the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

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The tortoise has caught and passed the hare. With the San Diego Padres’ win last night over the San Francisco Giants, and the Los Angeles Dodgers seventh straight loss to their hometown rivals, the Angels, the Padres find themselves in sole possession of first place in the National League West for the first time April 26, 2025.

After the Dodgers won the World Series last year, to a man, the players certified that the Padres had been their toughest competition in October. In last season’s National League Division Series, San Diego led the Dodgers two games to one, with Los Angeles needing to throw a bullpen game on the road just to get to even. Eight Dodger pitchers held the Padres to seven hits and no runs in an 8-0 victory, which moved the series to a deciding Game 5, which the Dodgers won 2-0. The Dodgers, of course, went on to win the World Series.

Heading into the season, most prognosticators had the Padres finishing third in the division, behind the aforementioned Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. And yet, the Padres have just gone about their business. They won their first five games of the season (which put them three behind the Dodgers, who won their first eight). They went 14-11 in May; and then 26-28 over June/July. But since the trade deadline, they are 9-3, while their rivals to the north have gone 5-7.

Just over six weeks ago, FanGraphs gave San Diego just a 1.2% chance to win the division. Today, they control their own fate. Since those long odds, the Padres have gone 23-12, and the Dodgers are only 12-21; that’s a ten-game swing. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, this is the latest that San Diego has been alone in first place of the division since September 25, 2010 – a mere decade and a half ago! The last time they won the division was in 2006, when a guy named Dave Roberts (yes, that Dave Roberts) was batting leadoff for the team.

This story is not about a Dodgers’ collapse – although that is part of the equation. It is about the Padres dominance, and their leadership’s ability to seize the moment. Over the past six weeks the club’s bullpen ERA is 2.05 – and that counts at least four weeks prior to the boost that bullpen got at the trade deadline. The Padres’ bullpen ERA for the season is 2.97 (an MLB best) while the Dodgers’ is 4.22 (20^th place).

Since the deadline, when president of baseball operations A.J. Preller added bullpen arms, the offense has exploded. The acquisitions of Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and Freddy Fermin has allowed their team to go from 4.08 runs per game to 5.33. Manny Machado leads the National League in hits (138). Fernando Tatís Jr. is tied for fourth in the NL in runs scored (84). But this is a true whole of effort result, as the team does not have a single player in the top 20 in home runs or RBI. Machado finds himself 20^th in OPS (.847). And yet, as a team, they are slashing .252/.323/.706.

Just three games behind Los Angeles at the deadline, Preller went Preller. In just a few days’ time, he grabbed fire-throwing closer Mason Miller and left-handed starter JP Sears from the Athletics; the aforementioned first baseman/designated hitter O’Hearn and outfielder Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles; and catcher Fermin from the Kansas City Royals.

In contrast, Los Angeles traded for right-handed pitcher Brock Stewart, who is already on the injured list, and outfielder Alex Call, who – for reasons that are flummoxing Dodgers fans across the city – cannot seem to get playing time ahead of Michael Conforto*.

_{*For the season, Conforto is slashing .187/.299/.327. Since the deadline, he has started nine of the team’s 12 games, with three hits in 30 at-bats. During that same period, Call has started just five games and has the same number of hits in 20 at-bats.}

As of this writing, despite their places in the standings, FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 61.8% chance of winning the division, and the Padres the other 38.2%. Both teams have a greater than 98% chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs’ calculations still believe it is nearly twice as likely (17.1% to 7.9%) that Los Angeles will win the World Series.

Starting tomorrow, the Padres and Dodgers will square off six times in 10 days – with three at Chavez Ravine and three at Petco Park. Those games could effectively decide the division by the night of August 24^th. However, it is more than likely that this will continue to be a dogfight from the moment that second series concludes all the way to the last weekend of the season, when the Padres host the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers finish the year in Seattle.

What the last two weeks have proven is that the Dodgers’ inexorable run to their fourth straight NL West title (and 12^th in 13 years) is no sure thing. To state the obvious, and to confirm what I am certain the Dodgers organization has known all along, the path to a repeat World Series title runs through San Diego.