Belarus Announces Joint Military Exercise With Russia In September

MINSK, BELARUS – NOVEMBER 23: (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) embraces Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (L) during the SCTO Summit on November 23, 2023, in Minsk, Belarus. Presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan gathered for the Collective Security Council Treaty Organization (CSTO) Summit in Minsk. (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)

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The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday that the Belarusian military will conduct training exercises with the Russian Federation on September 12 through September 16. The ministry stated that the drills will be conducted to “ensure the military security of [Belarus and Russia]

and their readiness to repel possible aggression.”

Known as Zapad-2025, the four-day military exercise will simulate air defense and ground combat scenarios. Belarusian and Russian forces will also conduct drills on how to repel invading forces. Finally, they will undergo nuclear weapons training. These exercises will be held in Belarus.

While the Belarusian Ministry of Defense claimed that only 13,000 Belarusian and Russian personnel will participate in Zapad-2025, independent assessments by the Latvian Ministry of Defense state that between 100,000 and 150,000 Belarusian and Russian soldiers will be involved in the drills. This has put NATO forces and Ukraine on high alert.

When asked about the Zapad-2025 training exercise, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Newsweek that Russia could be “planning [something] this summer in Belarus.” He added that Russia’s joint training exercise with Belarus could mark “the beginning of a full-scale invasion, similar to the one we saw in 2022.”

In response, Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka told TIME Magazine that the concerns about Zapad-2025 were “utter nonsense.” He added that Belarus was “not going to attack” Ukraine, Poland, or the Baltics states.

Belarus’s Involvement in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion, Belarus conducted a joint exercise with the Russian Federation in Belarus from February 10 to February 20, 2022. Following the conclusion of the training drills, the Russian Federation launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. During the start of the invasion, several Russian forces entered Ukraine from Belarusian territory. The Russians also launched airstrikes from Belarus into Ukraine.

Lukashenka has previously stated that he would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to use Belarus as a “staging area for Russian troops.” The Russian Federation also transported weapons and military equipment through Belarus into Ukraine to supply Russian soldiers. At one point, Russian soldiers also stayed in barracks in Belarus as they invaded parts of northern Ukraine.

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine through Belarus, however, were unsuccessful. Following the initial stages of the war, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions launched a counteroffensive throughout the country. By the summer of 2022, the Ukrainians successfully defended Kyiv, and they liberated all of central and northern Ukraine. This forced the Russians to abandon their attacks in northern Ukraine through Belarus. Instead, the Russians began to focus their efforts more heavily on southern and eastern Ukraine.

Since then, Russia has had significant losses. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, and reports independently verified by the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation has sustained over one million casualties. Additionally, the Russians have lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment and hardware. Due to these losses, Putin has turned to Lukashenka for assistance so that he can overcome Ukraine’s defense forces.

Throughout the duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin has been trying to pressure Lukashenka into sending Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine. While the Belarusian president has allowed Putin to deploy Russian soldiers on Belarusian territory, and transport Russian equipment from Belarus into Ukraine, Lukashenka has stopped short of sending soldiers. The Belarusian president believes that sending Belarusian soldiers would make the situation worse.

While Lukashenka has not sent soldiers into Ukraine, several Belarusian servicemembers have still protested their country’s involvement in the war. For example, dozens of Belarusian military officials have resigned from the Belarusian military. Others have left the Belarusian armed forces to join volunteer battalions that are helping Ukrainian forces defend their homeland. Finally, public opinion polls conducted in Belarus have found that most Belarusian citizens do not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result, Lukashenka has opted not to send soldiers into Ukraine.

Nonetheless, it is unclear how the Zapad-2025 training exercises will unfold. To date, Lukashenka has held off Putin from forcing Belarusian troops into Ukraine. But as the Russian president becomes more desperate to achieve a victory in Ukraine, it is unknown if Lukashenka will be able to hold off Putin forever.

In other words, there is a sense of uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Zapad-2025 training exercise. Regardless of what might happen, NATO and Ukrainian officials will continue to monitor the situation as they prepare for the necessary precautions of a potential attack.