Breaking Down How The NL And AL West Races May Conclude

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 19: Both benches clear after Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres was hit by a pitch by Jack Little #81 of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 19, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

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While streakiness is a common occurrence throughout 162 games, the second half of the 2025 season has been highlighted by this occurrence.

The Milwaukee Brewers have catapulted their way into the best record in baseball thanks to a 49-21 stretch since May 25, where the team was under .500.

Behind the Brewers is the Toronto Blue Jays, with the best record in the American League. At one point this season, the Blue Jays trailed the New York Yankees by six games in the division. Similar to Milwaukee, Toronto was 26-28 in late May, before going 44-22 in their last 66 games.

While the AL Central may already be locked up by the Detroit Tigers, the Cleveland Guardians’ stretch of play has entered them into Wild Card considerations after a 22-8 span since July 8.

But the streaks have not just been positive for the better teams in Major League Baseball.

In what was once a competitive NL Central, the Chicago Cubs have entered the Brewers’ rearview amid an 8-11 stretch.

As mentioned, the Yankees have seen their division lead evaporate after going 27-34 since they held a 6.5-game lead.

And even for the Tigers, who still lead the division by 5.5 games, they are currently in a 10-18 span since July 8.

When it comes to the two Western Divisions, however, the streakiness of four teams has made both of their races a lot more intriguing.

In the American League, the Seattle Mariners have stormed back to meet the Houston Astros atop the divisional standings, attempting to win the division for the first time since 2001.

In the National League, the San Diego Padres have done the same thing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were a team discussed to possibly win the most games in MLB history ahead of the season.

With both division foes still set to play each other this season, how might their races to represent the West impact the rest of the playoff picture?

Los Angeles Dodgers & San Diego Padres

Both 68-52 entering August 13

Similar to the Yankees, the NL West lead seemed to be locked up in early July. As of July 3rd, the Dodgers held a nine-game lead with a 56-32 record. Since then, Los Angeles has gone 12-20.

In that same stretch, the Padres have improved their record from 46-40 to 68-52, which is a 22-12 span.

While big things were expected from this roster, which, based on track record, is one of the strongest rosters compiled in the modern era, it goes to show the difficulty of a full regular season.

Injuries have played a significant role in their recent stretch, especially to their pitching depth. Players like Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol are just some of the members of the current injured list.

However, this season has also gone on to prove that the mental trials and tribulations (and sometimes the randomness) can make baseball the most unpredictable sport.

This has been the case for Mookie Betts.

One of the game’s most talented players, especially in terms of consistency, is having an outlier of a year in 2025. It is highlighted by his recent stretch, spanning back to June 7th.

Since that date, Betts has a .592 OPS, with just 46 total hits in 53 games.

While one player does not determine the fate of a roster, especially for one as talented as Los Angeles, Betts’ return to his typical level of play could be the only adjustment required for the Dodgers to win the division.

However, when it comes to overall talent, the Padres may now argue to be in the same conversation as their rival, the Dodgers.

Coming into the year, the Padres still had one of the best teams in baseball. And the production from San Diego’s household names has delivered once again in 2025.

Manny Machado continued to add to his Hall of Fame career with a team-leading .848 OPS. Fernando Tatis Jr has slugged 17 home runs and swiped 24 bases, while playing arguably the best right field in baseball.

And the combination of Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts is all hitting above league average, according to OPS+.

The starting pitching has been thin, which was expected due to starters like Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish returning from long-term injuries. However, free-agent signing Nick Pivetta has taken the ace role of the team with a 2.94 ERA in 23 starts. With Darvish and Michael King returning to the mound from their respective injuries, they look to fill out the playoff rotation if Dylan Cease continues to struggle in a starting role.

The overall struggles from the starting rotation have been hidden due to the production from the bullpen. With a 2.99 team reliever ERA, which is the best in baseball by a wide margin, San Diego can afford to cut a starter’s outing short with so many options in relief.

Despite this strength of the team, the Padres bolstered their bullpen with the biggest trade of the deadline, acquiring Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics for a slew of prospects.

They also brought in Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano from the Orioles, yet again being one of the most active teams at the deadline, essentially pushing their chips in on the season.

For a team in contention year in and year out, the Padres have come up short of their ultimate goal, with the Dodgers consistently stepping in their path.

This year could prove to be different if the current trends continue, which could make San Diego a threat to win it all.

Seattle Mariners & Houston Astros

Both 67-53 entering August 13

Both the Mariners and Astros have held the lone position at the top of the rankings. The Seattle Mariners first obtained first place on April 26th, then gave it to the Astros on June 3rd.

Now, after an 18-8 stretch compared to the Astros’ 14-14 play over the same span, Seattle has a chance to reclaim the throne.

For the Mariners, the reputation of the team has started and ended with pitching. Despite having the second-best team ERA in baseball last year, Seattle still failed to win over 85 games.

Now, with a team ERA that ranks just ninth in all of baseball, the team is projected to win 91 games.

This is thanks to their increased production offensively, without sacrificing their identity as a team capable of developing pitching.

In 2024, the Mariners ranked 22nd in team OPS with a .687 mark. This year, they are 12th with a .730.

Having the current MLB leader in home runs goes a long way into that uptick, especially when this level of slugging comes from the catching position, one that most teams expect very little from offensively.

However, Cal Raleigh’s success would be significantly less important and would potentially see less production if it were not for the rest of the lineup.

Especially when it comes to the outfield.

In the year, Seattle has three everyday outfielders with an OPS+ at least 17 points north of the league average, between Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, and Dominic Canzone.

This allowed Seattle to bring attention to their infield needs at the trade deadline, acquiring both Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to fill out the corner of the diamond.

This, paired with the starting rotation of arguably four playoff-caliber starters, between Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert, will also make for a scary roster to face when competing head-to-head for the division.

However, if there is any team that can claim to be battle-tested for such a series, look no further than the Astros.

Injuries have also plagued the season for the 2022 World Series champions, as designated hitter Yordan Alvarez has played just 29 games this year, third baseman Isaac Paredes remains on the 60-day IL until September, and now closer Josh Hader has been placed on the injured list with a left shoulder strain.

Despite the lineup fluctuations all season, the everyday players have made their mark on the year.

Jeremy Peña is amid a career year, with a career-high .860 OPS if the season ended today. Despite playing left field for the first time in his career, Jose Altuve continues to be one of the best hitters in the league, with a .285 batting average. And, before getting hurt, Paredes trailed just Altuve for leading the team in home runs.

On the mound, Framber Valdez has led the rotation and saved the bullpen in the majority of his starts, with 145.2 innings pitched already in just 23 outings. Hunter Brown has competed alongside the veteran lefty, leading the rotation with a 2.51 ERA.

The bullpen has been a major strength for the team, with the seventh-best reliever ERA in baseball.

So, even though the current state of the roster and overall depth may not instill fear like previous Houston rosters have, Seattle is not celebrating quite yet. Nor should the rest of the league, as to whether the Astros make the postseason with a division crown or a Wild Card berth, they have shown the ability to go on a deep playoff run before.

Especially after the Astros traded for former shortstop Carlos Correa, to pair on the left side with the shortstop that once took his position, it feels like the Astros are looking to go back on tour with the old band.

If the standings in either or both of the races remain within three games by their regular season series, the matchups will be must-watch television.

First up, Padres & Dodgers, kicking off this Friday for a three-game set in L.A.