XRP Price Eyes $5 As Whale Buys and Short Squeeze Risks Align

Key Insights:

• XRP price dips despite whales scooping up 900 million XRP in 48 hours.
• Shorts outweigh longs by ~75%, setting the stage for a potential XRP price short squeeze above $3.40.
• Clearing $3.65 could open a path to the $5 Fibonacci target, marking a new all-time high.

XRP’s price movement in recent weeks has been anything but smooth. The cryptocurrency has spent much of the time bouncing between $3.00 and $3.40, with sudden rallies followed by equally sharp pullbacks.

This back-and-forth pattern has left traders guessing, especially after a 3.7% dip over the last 24 hours. Still, despite the near-term swings, XRP has delivered over 450% gains in the past year.

While its current range might look dull, on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest the next big move could be up, possibly breaking the $5 mark.

The key? Clearing a crucial resistance level that has stood in its way before.

Whale Accumulation Builds, Ground for XRP Price Breakout

Over the past two days, large holders, often referred to as whales, have collectively scooped up 900 million XRP.

Such rapid accumulation is rare and typically signals strong confidence from big-money players. When whales load up, they often do so in expectation of a significant move.

The whale buying spree comes at a time when exchange reserves remain relatively low, meaning there’s less XRP readily available for selling.

That tightening supply, paired with the sudden surge in large purchases, sets up favorable conditions for a price push.

Historically, similar bursts of accumulation have preceded multi-week rallies. A similar pattern was last seen during the previous all-time high.

Short Squeeze Risk Is Present, Good for the Price Action

Derivatives data adds another angle to the bullish setup.

Currently, short positions in XRP outweigh long positions by around 75%. The short positions stand at $2.18 billion, which often shows bearish bias.

Yet, the XRP price often performs better under these bearish conditions.

When the market tilts this heavily toward shorts, it creates the perfect backdrop for a short squeeze; a fast upward price move triggered when short sellers are forced to buy back positions to cover losses. A short squeeze often leads to aggressive yet short price rallies.

Open interest in XRP futures has also bounced back to nearly $8 billion after dropping from highs near $11 billion in late July. This shows derivatives traders are again coming into the picture.

It is worth noting that derivatives are often more powerful catalysts when it comes to driving price rallies, in comparison to spot moves.

From a liquidation standpoint, the $3.40 level stands out. Clearing it could wipe out a chunk of short positions, with further liquidations likely around the all-time high zone of $3.65.

If that level breaks, XRP could enter price discovery mode. At these levels, previous resistances don’t exist. That would make a run toward the $5 target far more plausible.

Net Flow Shift Hints at Renewed Buy Pressure

There’s another important development: exchange net flows.

Since March 2025, XRP has seen consistent weekly outflows, meaning more coins were being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited.

This often connects with bullish sentiment, as holders move assets to cold storage rather than keeping them ready to sell.

However, this past week broke the pattern, showing the first positive net flow in months. At first glance, that might seem bearish; more coins heading to exchanges can signal selling.

But daily data now shows that outflows are returning, which suggests the brief inflow spike may have been a one-off.

If outflows pick up again, it would indicate that buyers are regaining control and could add momentum to a breakout attempt.

XRP Price and the Technical Levels To Watch

On the daily chart, XRP is sitting just below the $3.40–$3.45 resistance band. This zone has capped rallies in recent weeks and aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

A clean break above here opens the path to retesting $3.65, the previous all-time high from the last cycle.

Above that, the next major target comes in at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around $5.13. If XRP reaches that level, it would represent a gain of over 60% from current prices and mark its highest level ever.

Support sits near $3.08, with stronger buying interest likely around $2.95. A failure to hold those levels could see XRP slide back toward the $2.73–$2.67 range, though current on-chain trends suggest bulls remain in the driver’s seat.