Cardano Price Could Hit $1, but Smart Money Bets on a Brief Cooldown First

Key Insights:

• Cardano price has surged 12.6% in seven days, with $1 as the next major target, but smart money shows signs of caution.
• Positive netflows to exchanges, a rising short ratio, and bearish CMF divergence hint at a possible short-term cooldown.
• Key resistance lies at $0.841, while strong support sits near $0.81 and $0.7769 before a push toward $1.

Cardano (ADA), often called one of the most underrated major altcoins, is up 12.6% in the past seven days, in line with the broader crypto rally led by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

On-chain data and technical indicators show that the $1 target is within reach, but the road might not be straight. Several signals point to the possibility of a short-term consolidation before the next leg higher.

Exchange Inflows and Derivatives Hint at Increasing Sell Pressure

While retail traders are watching the $1 mark, some larger holders, often called “Smart Money” are already showing signs of caution.

For the first time since March 2025, ADA has seen a positive netflow of coins moving onto exchanges. This is important because exchange inflows often mean some investors are preparing to sell or take profits.

The size of this inflow isn’t huge compared to previous peaks, but it breaks a months-long trend of consistent outflows, where coins were leaving exchanges for cold storage.

If more inflows follow, it could add short-term sell pressure and slow ADA’s climb.

Long/Short ratio data also shows a steady sentiment shift. Long positions still slightly outweigh shorts at 50.46% vs. 49.54%, but the short side has grown quickly in recent sessions. This pattern usually means traders expect a near-term pullback, even if the overall trend remains bullish.

As a trader, it is important to keep an eye on the ADA liquidation map as well to see the squeeze buildup probability.

For now, retail and whales haven’t been aggressively selling into the rally, but they’re not adding large spot positions either. That neutral stance could leave ADA vulnerable to dips if buying momentum stalls.

Cardano Price Critical Technical Indicators Show Momentum Is Cooling

Two widely used volume-based indicators, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and On-Balance Volume (OBV), both suggest momentum is softening.

First one is the CMF. Despite ADA’s climb to $0.82, the CMF has made a lower low, meaning less capital is flowing into the asset compared to earlier in the rally. This divergence often precedes a pause or pullback.

Plus, On-balance volume has failed to set a new high alongside price, showing that the recent gains haven’t been backed by equally strong buying volume.

Taken together, these indicators point to a rally that’s losing some steam. This doesn’t necessarily mean a full reversal is coming, but it does make a brief cooldown more likely before ADA can attempt a breakout toward $1.

Cardano Price Action and Key Levels To Watch

At press time, ADA is trading at around $0.82, just below major resistance at $0.841 (the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level). Clearing this level on strong volume could open the way to $0.8645 and then $0.8835 before the $0.90–$1.00 psychological zone.

If ADA fails to hold its ground here, immediate support sits at $0.81, followed by $0.7769 and $0.7515 on deeper pullbacks. A more significant correction could test the $0.6842 zone, but that would likely require a sharp drop in market-wide sentiment.

The structure of ADA’s current rally is slower than its last big cycle, which also supports the idea of a short pause before the next surge. A controlled consolidation could actually be healthy, allowing the market to build enough momentum to push through the $1 barrier with conviction.

Do note that Cardano’s fundamentals and chart still point toward a path to $1, but on-chain flows, whale activity, and volume indicators are flashing yellow. Smart money appears to be taking a cautious approach, suggesting the next move could be a breather rather than an immediate Cardano price breakout.