The long-standing belief that Bitcoin’s market rhythm is dictated by its halving events is facing a serious challenge.
For years, traders have relied on a predictable sequence — a supply cut roughly every four years followed by a bull run and eventual correction. But a growing chorus of industry voices says that framework may no longer be the driving force behind price moves.
One reason? Massive corporate holdings. Author Jason Williams notes that the top 100 treasury companies collectively control close to one million BTC, meaning a large portion of the supply is now locked away in balance sheets rather than circulating through exchanges. This, he argues, changes how supply and demand interact, muting the effect of halvings.
Institutional presence is another factor. Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan expects positive returns to continue into 2026, breaking the halving-linked boom-and-bust pattern seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Pierre Rochard of The Bitcoin Bond Company goes further, calling halvings “immaterial” now that 95% of coins are mined, with new demand instead coming from ETFs, wealth platforms, and treasury buyers.
Market maturity is also shifting the landscape. Sygnum Bank’s Martin Burgherr says the halving date has become just one of several inputs for traders, alongside macroeconomic trends, regulation, and capital inflows from large investors.
Still, some see this as premature. Analyst CRYPTO₿IRB insists halvings remain central, claiming spot ETFs actually reinforce the cycle by aligning it more closely with four-year political and financial patterns. Xapo Bank’s Seamus Rocca also believes the risk of a drawn-out bear market is real, keeping the cyclical playbook relevant.
Whether the halving cycle is ending or simply evolving, the next 18 months will put the theory to the test — and could redefine how traders time the crypto market.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/will-2025-break-bitcoins-famous-four-year-price-pattern/