Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Test at $118K as Bulls Eye New All-Time High

Key Points:

• $118K remains the decisive breakout level for Bitcoin’s next move.
• Institutional and retail buying surpass new BTC supply.
• Market leverage cools, but short liquidations above $125K could fuel gains.

Bitcoin trades at $116,560, up 1.33% in 24 hours and 1.63% over the week, with analyst Lennaert Snyder identifying $118,000 as the breakout level for a potential new all-time high. Failure to reclaim it could signal downside risk.

Furthermore, Trader Tardigrade’s weekly chart shows a valid bull flag pattern, projecting a move toward $136,000 if upward momentum holds. Coinvo data notes the RSI is far from historical top levels, suggesting room for continuation.

Demand and Accumulation Trends

Bitwise reports institutional purchases of 545,579 BTC year-to-date against 97,082 BTC in new supply. Bloomberg and Glassnode confirm multi-year demand exceeding issuance, reinforcing accumulation strength.

Moreover, according to Glassnode, shrimp-to-fish cohorts add over 17,000 BTC monthly, surpassing the 13,850 BTC issued. 

These wallets hold less than 100 BTC and continue absorbing supply faster than it is created. Shrimps alone contribute nearly 10,000 BTC, underscoring persistent retail-led accumulation.

Market Positioning and Liquidation Risks

According to Glassnode, perpetual funding rates dropped below 0.1%, showing cooling leveraged long positioning and reduced speculative appetite. This shift follows recent euphoric highs in derivatives markets.

Coinvo’s liquidation map highlights heavy short liquidation potential above $125,000, totaling nearly $20 billion. Long liquidations cluster near $122,000–$123,000, marking key risk zones.

ETF Flows and Short-Term Structure

ETF flows on August 7 saw $277.4 million in BTC and $222.3 million in ETH purchased. This coincides with BTC holding above $115,300 support.

Snyder’s short-term chart targets $122,733 if $117,880 breaks, before testing higher resistance. Price action remains within this critical decision zone.