XRP on the edge: whale dump sparks free-fall fears as SEC ruling looms

• Whales have dumped $1.9B in XRP, sparking fears of a 30% price crash.
• SEC ruling and ETF news could trigger a major price reversal.
• XRP must hold $2.65 or risk falling toward $2 support.

XRP price is down 15.7% from its recently set all-time high, slipping from $3.65 to around $3.07, as heavy whale sell-offs and looming regulatory developments send ripples through the market.

Despite holding above $3, the broader sentiment remains fragile, with analysts warning of a potential 30% drop if support levels give way.

As investors await a critical US SEC decision that could redefine XRP’s regulatory status, large holders are quietly exiting the market in volumes not seen since the last major correction earlier this year.

The timing of these outflows, combined with weakening momentum indicators and fading volume, has traders on edge.

Whales offload billions as fear returns

Over the past month, XRP whales have unloaded more than 640 million tokens, worth approximately $1.91 billion, according to on-chain data analysed by The Enigma Trader on CryptoQuant.

These outflows, most of which occurred while XRP traded between $2.28 and $3.54, have raised serious concerns among market observers.

Notably, this pattern of distribution during price rallies mirrors earlier activity in January and February, when a similar sell-off preceded a sharp correction.

This time, however, there is a broader structural weakness across altcoins, with XRP increasingly showing signs of fatigue.

Santiment data also shows $6 billion in XRP was dumped by whales since the July 18 peak.

Even Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen reportedly sold $26 million worth of XRP in July, adding to concerns that insiders and early holders are taking profits ahead of potential downside.

XRP momentum stalls, support levels under pressure

While the XRP price recently managed to push above the $3 mark, rising from $2.91 to $3.08 before closing at $3.07 at press time on August 7, technical momentum remains flat.

Buying pressure came largely from Korean exchanges, especially Upbit, which processed over $95 million in XRP trades within one day.

However, despite the short-term surge, the token failed to hold above $3.02, with volume quickly fading.

Currently, the $2.98 level serves as immediate support. If this level fails, the next critical floor lies at $2.65.

Analysts warn that a sustained breakdown below this support could trigger a fall to $2.06, a key mean-reversion point aligned with XRP’s 50-week EMA.

Adding to bearish concerns, XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) has been printing lower highs since January, even as the price reached new peaks.

This bearish divergence typically signals weakening momentum and has historically preceded sharp pullbacks.

SEC decision and ETF hopes bring volatility

Much of the current uncertainty also stems from the upcoming SEC decision regarding Ripple’s appeal withdrawal.

The agency is expected to deliberate on the matter this week, with a broader ruling likely by mid-August.

If the SEC formally recognises XRP as a non-security under US law, it could eliminate a longstanding regulatory risk.

However, until that ruling is finalised, market participants remain cautious. A favourable outcome could revive bullish momentum, but any delay or ambiguity may intensify current selling pressure.

Meanwhile, international developments offer a glimmer of hope. Japan’s SBI Holdings recently filed for a Bitcoin-XRP ETF, signalling renewed institutional interest.

Reports suggest corporates are exploring up to $1 billion in XRP allocations for treasury diversification, which could add significant demand if market conditions stabilise.

Eyes on $3.05 as key XRP price breakout level

Despite the bearish overhang, derivatives data show traders are positioning for a potential breakout.

According to Coinglass, bullish bets on XRP perpetual contracts currently outnumber shorts nearly 2-to-1, far more aggressive than positioning seen in Bitcoin or Ethereum markets.

Options traders, too, are focused on the $3.20 strike for contracts expiring in late August, suggesting expectations of a rebound if key levels hold.

However, without renewed accumulation from whales — at least 5 million XRP per day, according to analysts — the market may continue to struggle.

Until then, the $3.05 level remains the next test. A clean break above it could open a path to $3.14 and $3.25, especially if the SEC decision or ETF momentum breaks in XRP’s favour.