The idea that quantum computing could one day dismantle Bitcoin’s security has fueled debate in crypto circles for years.
But according to Elon Musk’s AI chatbot, Grok, such fears are misplaced—at least for the foreseeable future.
In a conversation sparked by Musk’s query about IBM’s latest quantum advancements, Grok calculated that the probability of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining algorithm within the next five years is essentially zero. Even looking out to 2035, Grok estimated the odds would stay in single digits unless there’s an unprecedented leap in hardware capability.
At the heart of the issue is scale. Breaking SHA-256 would require millions of fully error-corrected qubits—a threshold far beyond current systems. While IBM and Google have shown early progress in error correction, practical quantum computers powerful enough to threaten Bitcoin remain decades away. IBM’s own roadmap projects its most advanced machine, the “Quantum Blue Jay” with 2,000 logical qubits, won’t arrive until 2033—still far short of the numbers needed for an attack.
Developers Aren’t Sitting Still
Even with low near-term risk, Bitcoin’s developer community is exploring quantum-resistant algorithms to ensure long-term resilience. Several Bitcoin Improvement Proposals outline potential migration strategies should a credible threat emerge. Ethereum’s core team has also drafted a 10-year plan to harden its own network against quantum attacks while targeting improvements in speed and scalability.
Market Still Shaken by Recent Volatility
The renewed spotlight on quantum computing comes as the crypto market is still recovering from a sharp correction. Bitcoin fell below $112,000 earlier this week before climbing back near $114,000, while Ethereum is holding just above $3,500.
For now, Grok’s verdict is clear: Bitcoin’s cryptography is safe for years to come, but the race between blockchain and quantum tech is far from over.
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Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/elon-musks-ai-dismisses-near-term-quantum-danger-to-bitcoin/