Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Ethereum Eyes $3,625 Rebound as Triangle Breakout Fuels $16K Price Outlook

After a failed breakout above $3,900, Ethereum is now retesting key technical support levels, with analysts divided over whether this is a short-term correction or the prelude to a much larger breakout.

ETH Price Today: Caught Between Support and Resistance

At the time of writing, Ethereum trades around $3,629, down from the recent July 29 high of $3,940. The price dipped below key short-term supports, confirming a bearish turn on multiple timeframes.

Ethereum ($ETH) eyes relief at $3,625 support—a dip below may trigger a liquidity grab. Source: @TedPillows via X

Short-term technicals point to mounting downward pressure, as ETH slipped below the midline of its ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. According to TradingView data, the Supertrend flipped bearish at $3,899, signaling a shift in momentum for the first time since mid-July.

Momentum indicators are flashing red. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a -DI spike to 30.4, while the +DI has dropped to 11.0, confirming seller dominance. On the 30-minute chart, RSI has fallen to 30.9, approaching oversold territory, while MACD remains strongly bearish.

According to CoinGlass, Ethereum recorded a net outflow of $113.19 million on August 1, suggesting rising exchange withdrawals and declining spot interest.

“$ETH is testing daily $3,625 support. Would like to hold here and see some relief. If not, a liquidity grab beneath the low is possible,” wrote X analyst @TedPillows on Thursday.

Ethereum Chart Analysis: Rebound or Breakdown?

The $3,625–$3,600 zone is now a decisive battlefield. Losing this support could open the door to a deeper correction toward $3,594 (100 EMA on 4H) and even $3,307 (200 EMA), marking a full retest of Ethereum’s June breakout base.

Ethereum breakout could trigger a strong rally and start the altcoin season. Source: Consistent_Trades on TradingView

However, if Ethereum can reclaim $3,700 and flip key resistance at $3,784 (Bollinger median) and $3,899 (Supertrend flip), bulls may regain control. Volume spikes and RSI divergences on lower timeframes may offer early signals of a local bottom forming.

Long-Term Outlook: Is Ethereum on the Verge of a $16K Breakout?

Despite short-term volatility, some analysts believe Ethereum is gearing up for a major cycle breakout. On-chain and macro-structural indicators suggest that the current correction may be a temporary pause in a broader bullish trend.

Ethereum could hit $16K if the bullish triangle breakout plays out like in 2020. Source: @Defi_Edward via X

Crypto strategist @Defi_Edward, in a widely shared post on X, pointed to a monthly ascending triangle forming on the ETH chart—a structure historically known to precede strong breakouts.

“A comparable breakout above the $4K resistance could realistically project ETH into the $15K–$16K range, with the triangle’s vertical height pointing there directly,” Edward wrote. “This is not retail-driven mania; it’s long-tail institutional buildup. Quiet, sustained, and methodical.”

Edward cited four key drivers for a five-digit Ethereum:

• Spot ETH ETFs have seen 18 straight days of inflows, totaling $5.3 billion.

• Ethereum issuance remains capped at under 1 million ETH annually.

• Institutional interest is growing, with ETH appearing on corporate balance sheets.

• Ethereum’s role as programmable collateral in Layer 2s and real-world asset tokenization is expanding.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin 2025: Structural Momentum Favors ETH?

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is seeing deeper Layer 2 adoption and a faster shift toward real-world utility. Analysts argue that if momentum from ETF flows and staking rewards continues, Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the second half of 2025.

Ethereum ($ETH) remains in a healthy uptrend, with a normal correction likely until it reaches $4,100. Source: @CryptoMichNL via X

According to Michaël van de Poppe, a short-term top near $4,000 is likely before Ethereum resumes a broader rally. He believes the current pullback is healthy and may set the stage for altcoin outperformance into early 2026.

Ethereum Layer 2 and Staking Fundamentals Add Support

Beyond price, Ethereum Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism continue to see rising transaction volumes, indicating robust developer activity and adoption. Meanwhile, Ethereum staking rewards and validator income remain steady, anchoring long-term investor confidence.

Gas fees have stayed moderate, supported by post-Dencun upgrades and L2 migration. These dynamics suggest Ethereum’s economic bandwidth is expanding, even amid price consolidation.

Final Thoughts: Ethereum Price Prediction Outlook Remains Divided

Ethereum’s current price of $3,629 reflects both uncertainty and opportunity. If bulls can defend the $3,625 level and reclaim momentum, a short-term pushback toward $3,784–$3,900 is possible. However, sustained resistance in the $3,900–$4,000 zone remains a challenge.

Ethereum (ETH) has been trading at around $3,658, down 4.63% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX) via Brave New Coin

Over the long term, technical formations like the monthly ascending triangle, combined with ETF inflows and rising institutional demand, support the case for a potential $15K–$16K Ethereum price this cycle.

As always, traders should monitor key chart levels and on-chain flows closely. The road to five-digit ETH may still face volatility—but the structural groundwork appears to be taking shape.