Why Fossil Fuels Keep Winning

This photo shows photovoltaic panels of a solar power station for agricultural use in the Yi-Hui-Miao Autonomous County of Weining, southwest China’s Guizhou Province, July 3, 2025. In recent years, Guizhou has made significant progress in ecological construction, striving to transform ecological advantages into developmental strengths. While actively developing green energy sources such as wind and solar power, Guizhou makes full use of the land beneath photovoltaic panels to cultivate crops, and meanwhile encourages farmers to engage in agricultural planting by leveraging diverse terrain and varied climate, an effort to enhance farmers’ income. Currently, Guizhou’s forest coverage rate stands at 63.3 percent, and its green economy accounts for 48 percent of the province’s overall economic composition. (Photo by Tao Liang/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images

In recent years, many optimistic narratives have overstated the impact of renewables on fossil fuel consumption. The reality is more sobering: renewables are not displacing fossil fuels—especially in non-OECD countries and energy-intensive sectors. They’re growing fast, but they’re still playing catch-up with rising global energy demand.

That is a key takeaway from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy. Yes, renewable energy posted impressive gains in 2024. But it still wasn’t enough to bend the curve on global fossil fuel use or carbon emissions.

In 2023, global energy consumption totaled 580 exajoules (EJ), with renewables providing just 29.97 EJ—or 5.2% of the total. By 2024, renewables increased to 32.74 EJ, a meaningful jump of 762 terawatt-hours, yet only nudged their global share to 5.5%.

Of the 11.9 EJ growth in total energy demand from 2023 to 2024, renewables supplied just 2.7 EJ—about 23% of the total. Most of the rest came from fossil fuels, with natural gas leading the way at 4.1 EJ. That’s why carbon emissions continued rising in 2024, despite the record-breaking year for renewables.

There were some bright spots. In 2024, countries like Argentina, the Netherlands, Poland, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, the UK, and Japan saw renewable energy growth outpace that of fossil fuels. In the United States, renewables met approximately 67% of the year’s increase in energy demand—better than the global average, but still short of closing the gap without additional fossil fuel use.

Countries like China and India continue to drive much of the world’s coal and gas consumption, reinforcing their reliance on carbon-intensive fuels. The result is a structural paradox: renewables are accelerating, but not fast enough to displace fossil fuels. Instead, they’re merely supplementing growing demand—allowing carbon emissions to remain on an upward trajectory.

Solar Power: From Niche to Powerhouse

One bright spot is the meteoric rise of solar power. In 2024, global solar generation reached a new record of 7.7 EJ, up 27.5% year-over-year. Over the past decade, solar output has grown at a compound annual rate of 25.8%—the fastest of any major energy source.

Non-OECD countries accounted for 57% of all solar electricity last year. China alone produced 3.0 EJ, nearly 40% of the global total. India’s solar output jumped from just 0.02 EJ in 2014 to 0.5 EJ in 2024—a 23-fold increase fueled by government-backed rooftop programs and grid expansion.

The United States remains a major player, generating 1.1 EJ of solar electricity in 2024. That’s 14.6% of the global total. But with a 10-year compound growth rate of 24.4%, the U.S. is now trailing the global average.

Wind Energy: Steady, But Slower

Wind generation also hit a record high in 2024, reaching 9.0 EJ globally. But while impressive, wind’s 10-year compound annual growth rate of 7.2% pales in comparison to solar’s. Wind still leads in absolute generation, but the respective growth rates suggest that lead won’t last much longer.

China again leads the pack in wind output, with 3.6 EJ in 2024—slightly more than the U.S. and EU combined. The United States came in second at nearly 1.7 EJ, with wind accounting for roughly 10% of U.S. electricity in 2024. However, like solar, U.S. wind is bumping up against permitting delays and grid constraints.

Europe remains the only region where wind consistently outpaces solar, thanks to long-standing investments in offshore infrastructure, especially in the North Sea.

Hydropower: Stuck in Neutral

Hydropower still accounts for the bulk of global renewable electricity—around 16.0 EJ in 2024—but it’s increasingly running out of steam. Growth over the past decade has averaged just 1.4% annually, constrained by geography, environmental concerns, and diminishing returns on new capacity.

In countries like Norway, Sweden, Brazil, and Canada, hydropower continues to supply more than 10% of overall energy demand. But the momentum is shifting. Distributed solar is rapidly gaining traction in Brazil’s agricultural sector, while Canada’s reliance on hydro has left it trailing in solar and wind adoption.

OECD vs. Non-OECD: A Reversal of Fortune

Perhaps the most important trend emerging from the data is the shifting balance between OECD and non-OECD countries. In 2014, the OECD led global deployment of most renewable technologies. Today, the tables have turned. Non-OECD countries now produce more non-hydro renewable electricity than OECD countries and are growing at a faster clip.

This growth isn’t just about ambition. It’s also about economics. Solar and wind have become competitive sources of new power in much of the world, and developing nations are embracing them to reduce fuel imports, create local jobs, and improve grid reliability.

Conclusion: Energy Transition Meets Demand Reality

The data makes one thing clear: renewable energy is no longer niche. But it is still not transformative—at least not yet.

The world’s energy transition is being outpaced by growth in total energy demand. Solar is rising faster than wind. Non-OECD countries are leapfrogging traditional leaders. Hydropower is fading into the background. And fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy mix.

There are reasons for optimism. Costs keep falling. Innovation continues. And emerging markets are proving they can scale renewables quickly. But for the foreseeable future, renewables will remain in an uphill race against ever-rising demand.