The Legitimate Leader For Change In Venezuela

Maria Corina Machado has been persecuted by those who usurped the government of Venezuela, criticized by collaborationists as adopting a scorched-earth policy against the corrupt regime, and accused of being soft and a fake by those who would prefer that she led an armed crusade. Despite the criticism from all sides, Maria Corina, as she prefers to be called, continues to push forward as a true leader of those who fight for Venezuelan freedoms.

Let me begin by giving some explanations regarding her critics, starting with the current government itself. Nicolas Maduro lost the July 28, 2024, election by more than two to one margin to the candidate from Machado’s party. Maduro and his acolytes are usurpers. They stole the election. Just a few days ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked, “Maduro is not the president of Venezuela, nor is his regime a legitimate government. Maduro is the leader of the Cartel of the Suns, a narco-terrorist organization that has taken control of a country.”

I have known Maria Corina since before she entered politics. In 2002, she was one of the founders of Sumate, a civil-society NGO. She was first elected to Congress in 2010. I was privileged to be with Ms. Machado in 2014, the day she landed in Lima, Peru, and was notified that if she returned to Caracas, she would not be able to leave her beloved Venezuela. She returned and has been fighting the regime and avoiding imprisonment ever since.

In his book The Collapse of Venezuela: Scorched Earth Politics and Economic Decline, 2012-2020, Francisco Rodríguez, a professor at the University of Denver with personal and family roots in Venezuela, puts part of the blame for Venezuela’s collapse on the opposition to the Chávez-Maduro regime. Rodríguez has good command of the economic data, but he implies that the Venezuelan economic and political situation would be much better if the opposition had not pushed for sanctions. He says the opposition has mismanaged the conflict and pushed a regime that might have been open to collaboration into a posture of complete obstinacy. I, however, have worked with Venezuelans for over four decades and have been a close follower of their situation. It was clear from the start that Chávez and Maduro never intended to give up power and would brook no compromise to keep it.

Lastly, believe it or not, Machado has been criticized for not being tough enough on Chávez and Maduro. Eduardo Bittar, a Venezuelan activist based in Brazil, regards himself as the authentic opposition and includes Machado as part of a “fictional” opposition aligned with Chavismo. Machado’s allies, though, pay little attention to Bittar. On social media, Machado has 6.2 million followers on X and 8.6 million on Instagram. Bittar, on the other hand, has 117K on X, and 48K on Instagram. Why bother? Because despite the clear messages from Secretary Rubio and other members of Trump administration in support of Machado, Bittar has managed to earn the confidence of important Trump allies such as the Bolsonaro family and leading members of CPAC. Eduardo Bittar is particularly critical of María Corina Machado and many in the mainstream opposition, whom he labels “oppofiction.” Some of Bittar’s accusations, such as that Machado voted against legalizing weapons in the possession of the population (allegedly, 13 million unregistered arms were in the hands of the militias of the regime) and that she has a good relationship with members of the Socialist International, which include social democrats, are true. Bittar’s assessment that the Maduro regime will not leave through a democratic process is also credible. But going from there to delegitimize Machado is helping divide the much-needed internal and external support needed for a successful operation against the corrupt regime.

Yesterday, in a video aimed at refreshing memories about the electoral theft of July 28, 2024, Machado was very direct. As she included the military and the police, it sounded like a call to arms. To her followers, she asked them to organize, exercise strategic pressure, and denounce with perseverance, focus, and discipline.

Core pillars of Machado’s economic proposal
Last month Machado’s team unveiled a 15-year roadmap projecting the potential wealth creation that could be achieved if the current regime falls. The estimate is that under a democratic government, with a division of power and the rule of law, the liberation of Venezuela could lead to up to $1.7 trillion in global wealth creation.

For this to happen, though, Venezuelans will need a new framework to rebuild if and when Venezuela is freed from the current regime. For this, Machado’s proposal has its priorities in order. It stresses the importance of institutional reform and the rule of law, guaranteeing property rights, enforcement of contracts, and regulatory stability.

Machado commits to market liberalization and the privatization of the oil industry and other state enterprises. She proposes re-engagement with the IMF, the World Bank, and the Interamerican Development Bank. This has its risks, but it is similar to what Javier Milei has been doing in Argentina. Given the decades of neglect, waste, and corruption, and given Venezuela’s abundant natural resources, the country could see a significant jump in GDP if it were to adopt modern technologies to tap the world’s largest oil reserves, its major gas reserves, minerals, farmland, coastline, and strategic near-shoring location. Machado proposes diversification into 12 strategic sectors, including energy, mining, agriculture, tourism, tech, healthcare, and education infrastructure.

The goals of the plan are very realistic. For example, it proposes boosting crude production from under 1 million barrels a day to about 4–4.7 million barrels a day over 15 years, generating roughly $420 billion in oil sector revenues. The goal of raising GDP from around $100 billion today to $350 billion is also achievable, especially if any new government earns credibility in promoting fiscal and monetary discipline. Venezuela’s primary think tank promoting economic freedom, CEDICE Libertad, has mapped the Venezuelan economy, and its studies confirm the proposal’s feasibility.

Machado frames the plan as transforming Venezuela from the “criminal hub of the Americas” into an “energy and economic hub.” For the U.S., though, a restored Venezuela has more than simply economic importance. Joseph Humire – founder of the Center for a Secure Free Society and current deputy director at Trump’s Pentagon – recently spoke to this effect at a gathering of policy leaders. Even if in fifteen years Venezuela grows to the potential expected by the proposal, its GDP would still be much lower than the average US state. For Humire, a staunch ally of Venezuelan freedom fighters, Venezuela is much more relevant, almost essential, for US long-term national security. Moving to a government led by Maria Corina Machado would do much for peace in the Americas and the protection of freedoms in the United States.