Bitcoin’s recent rally may be grabbing headlines, but according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, supply-side pressure remains surprisingly subdued.
In a new analysis, Adler suggests that the market is still in the early phases of its broader macrocycle, with most long-term holders showing little urgency to sell.
While supply activity has started to pick up — especially after BTC reclaimed the $100,000 level in June — it remains far below the peaks seen during previous bull runs.
Adler highlighted that the 30-day active supply ratio has turned positive, climbing by 2.4% over the past month. But that’s still modest compared to spikes in 2024, when active supply surged to 20% during major price milestones.
These so-called “sleeper coins” — long-idle assets that suddenly return to circulation — were key indicators in earlier distribution phases.
Adler expects supply activity to gradually rise as Bitcoin holds above $120,000, first approaching the 8–10% range and eventually reaching 18–20%. Until then, he believes there’s a strong “bullish buffer” in the market, as supply remains relatively constrained.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-supply-still-tight-as-long-term-holders-stay-put-analyst-says/