Getting A Kuminga Deal Done Beats Alternative For Golden State

As the NBA world awaits a conclusion to the Jonathan Kuminga saga, the Golden State Warriors are finding themselves in a pickle.

While the organization seem to be open-minded towards a future that doesn’t include the 22-year-old, they’re also trying to remain competitive over the course of Stephen Curry’s last years in the league.

Kuminga, warts and all, offers a level of explosiveness no one else on the team can match, and his talents are significant.

The big picture, contractually speaking

While the two sides differ on money, the real calculation for Golden State these days is far more simple: Can they afford to lose a talent like Kuminga?

As NBA free agency gets deeper and deeper into the summer, picking up the qualifying offer, worth $7.9 million, surely must become a real consideration for Kuminga and his team.

The Warriors extended to Kuminga the qualifying offer in order to retain the right of first refusal, thus keeping him as a restricted free agent, and allowing the organization to match any offer sheet he might sign.

With no offer sheet in sight, given that the market has dried out, the Warriors are playing hardball with Kuminga, trying to lock him into a contract that benefit their books long-term.

Kuminga, however, can accept the one-year tender and become an unrestricted free agent in 2026, where he’d be able to leave the Warriors outright. This means no compensation coming back to Golden State, as accepting the qualifying offer also comes with a no-trade clause.

The Warriors are, obviously, aware of this scenario, and are hoping their forward accepts a deal that provides long-term security.

That said, the risk of potentially losing Kuminga for nothing, even if it’s a year from now, is fairly great given that the Warriors aren’t exactly loaded with assets to replace his production.

The path forward

As such, one solution could be for the Warriors to accept they’ll be a little uncomfortable by upping their offer to an area that’s closer to what Kuminga is seeking.

That way, they’ll have him under contract, meaning they can trade him later, and likely receive a positive return.

That path isn’t without its own set of issues, however.

With the projections of the 2026 salary cap coming in lower than expected (7% increase compared to the otherwise expected 10%), some teams might be inclined to look at an expensive Kuminga contract with hesitation.

Whereas, under the 10% increase, Kuminga’s deal would look more and more team-friendly the longer it runs, a 7% cap increase doesn’t lower Kuminga’s cap percentage by nearly as much, thus making him – indirectly – more expensive.

As such, the Warriors are likely concerned to sign the forward to a deal that will be viewed as an overpay, both for the present and the future, as that would make him difficult to trade.

Of course, there’s also the chance that Kuminga improves, and significantly so, in the coming years, which could make him a bargain, even if he’s to receive what he’s asking for, which allegedly is in the range of $25 million per year.

As is evident, there is a lot of juggling back and forth, and many scenarios in play. But the Warriors must realize that the worst possible outcome is for Kuminga to walk, for nothing, in 11 months.

Therefore, it’s probably time to strike a deal, even if it makes them slightly uncomfortable.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.