Historic Aaron Judge Run Leads Yankees To Top True Talent Team Ranking

It’s time for my annual batted ball-based midseason team true-talent rankings —here’s a quick refresher on the methodology.

In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” are applied to each team’s population of batted balls, both for and against, to derive the production they “should have” achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.

Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs’ performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.

In 2020, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.

To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Five clubs were subjected to this penalty, a fairly average number compared to recent norms.

Yesterday we reviewed the bottom 15 clubs; today, it’s the top 15. This includes 11 of the 12 teams in playoff position at the All Star break, but also three teams presently below .500. Here we go:

15. Seattle Mariners (Actual Record = 51-45, Projected Record = 49-47)

Offensive Rating = 99.9 (14th), Pitching Rating = 104.6 (23rd), Defensive Rating = 94.9 (6th); 2024 Final = 6th

After years of their subpar offense being carried by a stellar pitching staff, the Mariners offense steps forward……and their pitchers get hurt. Perhaps they can begin to click on all cylinders as the arms return. Led by a command performance from C Cal Raleigh, the M’s actually hit 22 more homers than their opponents at the break. Outside of that, this was the epitome of a .500 club – the same exact 89.1 mph average exit speed both for and against, and a very modest -0.3 degree launch angle differential. Their net team K/BB profile is almost exactly neutral, and they put into play all of 33 batted balls fewer than their opponents. A healthy George Kirby and Logan Gilbert would make a big difference – only three MLB clubs had higher projected SLG against in the the first half. Team defense is a strength, particularly in the outfield (88.9 fly ball multiplier) where Julio Rodriguez roams.

14. San Diego Padres (Actual Record = 52-44, Projected Record = 50-46)

Offensive Rating = 99.1 (17th), Pitching Rating = 96.9 (12th), Defensive Rating = 98.2 (12th); 2024 Final = 7th

Sometimes an offense takes on the characteristics of its most distinguishable member – only the Brewers have a lower team average exit speed than the Padres, and only a handful of clubs hit more line drives, as the club mimics the tendencies of Luis Arraez. To deepen the comparison, only two teams have struck out less than the Padres, who put 167 more balls into play than their opponents. Unfortunately, the excess was wasted on the ground ball category, where the Padres were +191. This keyed a -3.6 degree launch angle deficit compared to their opponents, one of the the largest in baseball. The club’s 89.9 mph average fly ball exit speed tied the Brewers for the lowest mark in the game in the first half, and their expected fly ball SLG ranked next to last. My method sees them as the third NL wild card.

13. Texas Rangers (Actual Record = 48-49, Projected Record = 50-47)

Offensive Rating = 95.7 (19th), Pitching Rating = 97.9 (13th), Defensive Rating = 95.7 (9th); 2024 Final = 23rd

The Rangers very quietly have become a high floor team, respectable in all facets of the game. Unfortunately, there isn’t a ton of ceiling here as presently constituted. This is a fairly neutral team across the board, with a level K/BB profile, and a mere +17 batted ball surplus with only one notable batted ball type differential. That one is a negative, however, as their +68 pop up surplus is quite a drag on their offense. That contributes to their +2.5 degree launch angle differential. The positive side of that advantage is borne out by their +14 homer edge. Their pitching is much improved, inducing plenty of grounders and issuing few walks. Infield defense has been a strength, with 2B Marcus Semien and SS Corey Seager keying a 81.3 grounder multiplier.

12. Minnesota Twins (Actual Record = 47-49, Projected Record = 51-45)

Offensive Rating = 102.4 (10th), Pitching Rating = 90.4 (3rd), Defensive Rating = 109.5 (29th); 2024 Final = 13th

Year after year, the Twins remain one of the Whole Is Less Than The Sum Of Its Parts teams. Their raw materials are solid, their connective tissue weak, kind of the anti-Brewers. Only four teams have a higher average exit speed than the Twins’ 89.5 mph. Only three MLB clubs have drawn fewer walks, however. On the pitching side, no team has issued fewer walks or induced more pop ups (thanks, Joe Ryan – trade him at your own risk). Team defense, across the board, continues to be an ongoing, limiting issue. It’s most acute in the outfield (113.4 fly ball multiplier), where the likes of Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Willi Castro have all had their problems.

11. Toronto Blue Jays (Actual Record = 55-41, Projected Record = 51-45)

Offensive Rating = 110.5 (4th), Pitching Rating = 102.2 (19th), Defensive Rating = 103.5 (24th); 2024 Final = 17th

A very interesting and surprising ball club. My method sees them as the third AL Wild Card, one of four teams in the playoffs from their division. It’s a very unique offense – they rank 4th best in baseball according to my method despite a -25 homer differential. They never strike out, but hit the ball reasonably hard, a rare combo. They put 205 more balls in play than their opponents in the first half, including a whopping +97 line drive differential, the largest in baseball. There are some real run prevention issues, however. Despite that huge batted ball differential, they actually allowed more fly balls than they hit, recording a large -4.4 degree launch angle differential. Team defense is also an issue, particularly in the outfield (111.5 fly ball multiplier), thanks in large part to the efforts of George Springer, Anthony Santander and Jonatan Clase.

10. Atlanta Braves (Actual Record = 42-53, Projected Record = 51-44)

Offensive Rating = 103.0 (8th), Pitching Rating = 95.4 (10th), Defensive Rating = 100.0 (16th); 2024 Final = 2nd

Our highest ranking sub-.500 club. This really shouldn’t be surprising – they’ve scored more runs than they have allowed, despite being plagued by injuries to their best players all season. They’re likely too buried to make the playoffs, but if any lagging team is capable of a run, it’s these guys; according to my method, they’re the second NL wild card. The Braves are at least somewhat above average in all respects – they’ve got a positive net K/BB profile, have measurable team exit speed and launch angle differentials, and have hit more (and harder) fly balls and line drives than their opponents. They uncovered a gem in C Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider are back healthy and performing, and Chris Sale should join them before long (though Spencer Schwellenbach might not). The near-term future remains bright.

9. New York Mets (Actual Record = 55-42, Projected Record = 53-44)

Offensive Rating = 115.6 (1st), Pitching Rating = 99.3 (15th), Defensive Rating = 105.9 (27th); 2024 Final = 8th

Interesting team. My method sees them as the best offensive ballclub in the game, led by prized offseason free agent acquisition Juan Soto. They hit the ball significantly harder (+1.0 mph exit speed differential) and higher (+1.3 degree launch angle differential) than their opponents, keying a +41 homer surplus, second only to the crosstown rival Yankees. Their run prevention efforts have limitations, with injuries churning through their starting rotation and team defense shortcomings all over the field. Soto’s defensive struggles contribute to their 108.4 fly ball multiplier, while 1B Pete Alonso and 3B Mark Vientos are chiefly culpable for their 123.2 grounder multiplier.

8. Tampa Bay Rays (Actual Record = 50-47, Projected Record = 53-44)

Offensive Rating = 96.1 (18th), Pitching Rating = 96.2 (11th), Defensive Rating = 91.8 (1st); 2024 Final = 20th

The most improved team in baseball according to my method, and the highest ranked club not currently sitting in a playoff spot. Their offense is largely unremarkable, despite the breakthrough of wunderkind Junior Caminero, but their +80 line drive differential is the second largest in MLB and is keeping them afloat. Their pitching staff kind of lives on the edge – they’ve allowed an MLB-highest 89.9 mph average exit speed, keying a -22 homer differential. Only three MLB clubs have walked fewer hitters, however, and quite a bit of that excess authority has been muted by the game’s foremost team defense. Their infield defense (81.8 grounder multiplier) has been especially good, led by SS Taylor Walls and UT Jose Caballero.

7. Boston Red Sox (Actual Record = 53-45, Projected Record = 55-43)

Offensive Rating = 102.4 (9th), Pitching Rating = 100.1 (17th), Defensive Rating = 92.3 (2nd); 2024 Final = 9th

A fun, fun ballclub. No team hits the ball harder than the Sox’ average exit speed of 90.6 mph. Their +2.2 mph exit speed differential is also the game’s best, and their +2.1 degree launch angle differential is also an asset. These factors help drive their sizeable +31 homer advantage. On the other hand, their net K/BB profile is a slight negative, and they have a -46 line drive differential. My method, which doesn’t sweat errors so much, instead prioritizing range, thinks much more highly of the club’s defense than do more traditional metrics. That’s especially true in the outfield (89.0 fly ball, 87.5 line drive multipliers), where Ceddanne Rafaela works his magic. One more key fact to consider – while Fenway is a doubles haven, that doesn’t fully explain why the Sox are +75 in doubles. They are simply out-defending their opponents.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers (Actual Record = 58-39, Projected Record = 55-42)

Offensive Rating = 114.3 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 98.6 (14th), Defensive Rating = 101.2 (19th); 2024 Final = 1st

Considering the Dodgers’ massive current and future payroll commitments, anything less than a first place ranking has to be considered as at least somewhat of a disappointment. Their offense remains a clear strength. Despite having only a +86 batted ball differential, the Dodgers are +115 in fly balls (driving a +1.3 degree launch angle differential), and they make it count. Only the Yankees and Red Sox have higher average fly ball exit speeds, and only those two plus the Mets have higher expected projected SLG on fly balls – and none of those three clubs have hit as many fly balls. Their injury churn on the pitching side has given back a bit of their offensive advantages – they’ve walked a lot of hitters and allowed authoritative contact. Defense has been an issue overall, though Mookie Betts has done a nice job at short, keying a 87.1 grounder multiplier.

5. Chicago Cubs (Actual Record = 57-39, Projected Record = 55-41)

Offensive Rating = 110.3 (5th), Pitching Rating = 99.4 (16th), Defensive Rating = 95.9 (10th); 2024 Final = 14th

A cursory look at some summary batted ball numbers might cause one to wonder why the Cubs rank so highly. Their offensive and defensive average exit speeds and launch angles are almost identical. They put only 70 more balls in play than their opponents, mostly due to a +74 walk differential. They are one of the six teams assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty, How then, are they +29 in doubles, +8 in triples and +25 in homers? Fly ball volume and impact outfield defense, that’s how. Their 910 fly balls led the majors at the break, and their +113 fly ball differential was second to only the Dodgers. Their 76.1 fly ball multiplier was the best in MLB, and was obviously made possible by the stylings of Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field.

4. Detroit Tigers (Actual Record = 59-38, Projected Record = 56-41)

Offensive Rating = 100.2 (12th), Pitching Rating = 91.5 (5th), Defensive Rating = 96.0 (11th); 2024 Final = 12th

The formula was always simple for this Tigers club – improve the offense to around the league average range, and find enough pitching help for Tarik Skubal to make the pitching staff truly elite. Mission accomplished. The club has used the same approach as the Cubs – hit the ball in the air, and pull it excessively on the ground, penalty be damned. They had +74 fly ball and +3.3 degree launch angle differentials at the break, keying a +19 homer advantage. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson give this team just enough thump to be dangerous. That thump coupled with top-shelf starting pitching and solid all-around team defense also gave the club +23 double and +9 triple advantages at the break.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (Actual Record = 55-41, Projected Record = 56-40)

Offensive Rating = 107.9 (6th), Pitching Rating = 88.8 (2nd), Defensive Rating = 101.8 (21st); 2024 Final = 5th

I have a number of committed Phils’ fans in my life, and from listening to them you’d think this was a deficient ballclub. Sure there are some limitations, but they have a very sound foundation. The starting rotation, led by Zack Wheeler, is without peer. And the offense doesn’t get enough credit. They never pop up, hit way more fly balls than their opponents (+69) and have a significant exit speed (+1.5 mph) advantage. (Of course, their 87.8 mph average exit speed allowed is MLB’s best.) Team defense is a concern, particularly in the outfield (105.3 fly ball multiplier), where Nick Castellanos is the weak link. Their best players are as good as anyone’s, but the connective tissue (and the bullpen) needs shoring up at the deadline.

2. Houston Astros (Actual Record = 56-40, Projected Record = 56-40)

Offensive Rating = 95.2 (21st), Pitching Rating = 85.8 (1st), Defensive Rating = 95.2 (7th); 2024 Final = 3rd

The Astros have for the entire season been what the Milwaukee Brewers have been for the last month or so – an elite run prevention outfit with just enough offense to win. And they’ve done it despite the loss of mainstays Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman prior to the season and a spate of starting pitcher injuries and turnover during the season. As usual, they put the ball in play (-178 strikeout, +240 ball in play differential) and that allows them to paper over mediocre team exit speed and launch angle differentials (and a mere +1 homer advantage). They’re this efficient at bat – they have a -38 pop up differential despite all those extra batted balls. Team defense is also a strength, particularly in the infield (80.4 grounder multiplier), largely due to the fine work of SS Jeremy Pena and UT Mauricio Dubon.

1. New York Yankees (Actual Record = 53-43, Projected Record = 63-33)

Offensive Rating = 115.0 (2nd), Pitching Rating = 91.0 (4th), Defensive Rating = 93.2 (3rd); 2024 Final = 4th

Yup, my method sees these guys as 10 games better than their record at the break, the largest such disparity in the game. It’s not that surprising when you look at the underlying data – their 90.4 mph average exit speed is the game’s second highest, and their +1.9 mph exit speed differential is the largest. No club hit their fly balls harder (92.5 mph), or with a higher expected SLG. They hit 111 more fly balls than their opponents, driving +39 doubles, +47 homer and +2.5 degree launch angle differentials, and were one of the six clubs assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty. Aaron Judge’s fingerprints are all over all of this. But they’re more than just a bunch of thumpers – their pitchers allowed the third fewest number of liners in either league, and their infield defense (93.6 grounder multiplier) has been stellar, led by Jazz Chisholm, Oswald Peraza and yes, Anthony Volpe.