Bitcoin Could See Slow Melt-Up or Consolidation Through July, Galaxy Digital Suggests

• Bitcoin’s recent surge to new all-time highs has sparked cautious optimism among experts, with Galaxy Digital’s Michael Harvey forecasting a potential “continued slow melt-up” through July.

• Despite the impressive rally, a consolidation phase appears likely as investors digest gains and assess market conditions, balancing inflows from institutional and retail participants.

• According to COINOTAG, Harvey emphasizes that sustained strength in US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs and treasury accumulation will be critical drivers for any further upside this month.

Bitcoin eyes a steady climb through July amid strong ETF inflows and treasury demand, though consolidation and downside risks remain key considerations.

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Bitcoin’s Potential for a Gradual Melt-Up Amid ETF and Treasury Demand

Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, projects that Bitcoin could experience a gradual upward trend through the end of July, describing this as the “most optimistic scenario.” This outlook hinges on continued robust inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recently demonstrated strong performance. Additionally, accumulation by Bitcoin treasury firms remains a pivotal factor supporting price momentum.

Harvey notes that while institutional demand is evident, the degree of retail participation remains uncertain. Coinbase’s rise to No. 137 on the US Apple App Store signals a potential uptick in retail interest, yet Google search trends for “Bitcoin” suggest broader retail enthusiasm has yet to fully materialize. This nuanced dynamic underscores the importance of monitoring both institutional and retail activity to gauge Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

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Market Dynamics and Price Action Supporting Bitcoin’s Outlook

Bitcoin’s recent peak at $122,884, followed by a modest retracement to around $118,098, reflects typical market behavior after a significant rally. Harvey’s base case anticipates a period of consolidation as the market digests these gains, which could set the stage for a subsequent advance if inflows and demand persist. This scenario aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin experiences phases of pause before resuming upward momentum.

Moreover, the interplay between spot ETF inflows and treasury accumulation creates a foundation for sustained price support. Should retail demand accelerate, it could amplify buying pressure, potentially driving Bitcoin to new highs before the end of July. Investors are advised to watch these indicators closely as they provide valuable insight into market sentiment and liquidity.

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Bear Case Scenario: Risks of a Retracement Below $110,000

While the optimistic outlook is grounded in strong demand signals, Harvey also highlights a plausible downside risk where Bitcoin could retrace below $110,000. This scenario would likely be triggered by a risk-off sentiment, possibly stemming from profit-taking or weakness in broader equity markets. A 5-10% pullback is within the realm of possibility under such conditions, reflecting typical market corrections following rapid price appreciation.

Supporting this cautious perspective, crypto analyst Rekt Capital has pointed out that the current Bitcoin cycle may be approaching its later stages, with a potential peak around October 2025. This timing corresponds to approximately 550 days after the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, consistent with historical cycle patterns observed since 2020. Such insights emphasize the importance of prudent risk management amid evolving market dynamics.

Historical Patterns and Their Influence on Bitcoin’s Future Price Movements

Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price trajectory often follows cyclical trends tied to halving events, which reduce the rate of new supply entering the market. The anticipated peak in October 2025 aligns with these cycles, indicating that while short-term gains remain possible, investors should remain mindful of the broader market context. This cyclical framework provides a valuable lens through which to interpret current price action and set realistic expectations for Bitcoin’s medium-term performance.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rally has positioned it for a potential “slow melt-up” through July, supported by strong institutional inflows and treasury accumulation. However, the market is likely to experience consolidation as it balances these forces with uncertain retail demand and broader economic factors. Investors should remain vigilant to downside risks, including a possible retracement below $110,000, especially in the context of historical cycle patterns pointing to a market peak in late 2025. Monitoring ETF flows, treasury activity, and retail engagement will be essential for navigating Bitcoin’s evolving landscape with informed confidence.