Russia’s Military Alliance Is Slowly Unraveling

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a press conference with media representatives this week to discuss Armenia’s economic and social issues, as well as the country’s relationship with Russia. During the session, he also hinted at Armenia’s future in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Formed in 1992, the CSTO was created to serve as a military alliance for countries in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The organization, led by Russia, was seen as a successor to the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.

Armenia was one of the founding members of the CSTO. Since joining the organization, the Armenian military has conducted numerous training exercises and operations with the other CSTO members. The Armenians even chaired the organization in 2021.

Since then, Armenia’s relationship with the CSTO and Russia has faltered. Armenia accused the CSTO of failing to “fulfill its obligations to Armenia.” The Armenians stated that the collective did not send protection during Azerbaijan’s attacks in 2020 and 2023. As a result, Armenia froze its membership in the organization in February 2024. Since then, Armenia has not participated in CSTO training exercises.

During the July 16 press conference, Pashinyan was asked about Armenia’s future in the CSTO. The Armenian prime minister stated that it was “more likely for Armenia to withdraw from [the CSTO] than to reactivate its membership.”

Should Armenia withdraw from the CSTO, it would not be the first time a country has left the organization. For example, after joining in 1992, Azerbaijan and Georgia did not to renew their membership in 1999. Instead, these two countries chose to develop stronger relationships with other countries and organizations beyond the Russian-led CSTO. Then, in 2012, Uzbekistan withdrew from the CSTO after it claimed the collective had failed to come to its defense during a skirmish with fellow CSTO member Kyrgyzstan.

Other countries have had issues with the CSTO and Russia. For example, Kazakhstan has toyed with the future of its membership. When the Russian Federation launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russians turned to the CSTO for assistance. In response, the Kazakh government rejected Russia’s full-scale invasion by not supporting Russian territorial gains in Ukraine. Instead, the Kazakh government sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Kazakh officials have also distanced themselves from Russia. For example, in October 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev opted not to hold a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a summit in Kazakhstan. The episode caused Putin to state that Russia demanded respect from Kazakhstan. Then, in June 2023, Tokayev did not attend a Russian-led economic forum in St. Petersburg. Since then, Kazakh officials have begun meeting more regularly with their counterparts from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

A Sense of Uneasiness Across the Organization

CSTO members Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have not been as defiant toward Russia as Armenia and Kazakhstan. But they still have had their differences.

In the case of Belarus, the Belarusian military has continued to hold training exercises and engagements with Russian forces. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has also met with Putin frequently to discuss the economic and energy relationship between Belarus and Russia. Despite this continued interaction, Lukashenko has repeatedly denied Putin’s request to send Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine. In addition, a Newsweek report stated that most Belarusian citizens oppose their country’s participation in Russia’s war. Similarly, several Belarusian military officers do not want to participate in Russia’s war.

Meanwhile, the Kyrgyzstani government has been hesitant toward its relationship with the CSTO and Russia. In October 2022, Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr skipped an economic gathering organized by the Russian Federation. Kyrgyzstan then canceled a CSTO training exercise that it was supposed to host. Additionally, the Kyrgyzstani government has not deployed soldiers to assist Russia in its war. Finally, a report by The Diplomat stated that the Kyrgyzstani government has advised citizens not to travel to Russia.

Finally, like the other CSTO members, Tajikistan has opted not to send soldiers to help Russia fight in its war against Ukraine. Additionally, a report by Eurasianet found that several dual Tajik-Russian citizens have considered relinquishing their Russian nationality as they do not want to be conscripted into the Russian army.

Given these developments, a sense of uneasiness is growing across the CSTO. Some members have begun distancing themselves from the Russian Federation, and two countries have openly defied the military organization.

The CSTO was formed as a successor to the Warsaw Pact, but the organization is now facing serious challenges. It remains to be seen how Russia will mend its relationship with the other members so that its security collective does not falter.