Restricted Free Agents May Be Holding Up The Rest Of NBA Free Agency

The NBA free-agent market opened only two weeks ago, but it has largely ground to a halt. A handful of notable restricted free agents may largely be to blame for that.

Nine-time All-Star point guard Damian Lillard is the best player on the free-agent market, although he’s expected to miss most or all of the 2025-26 campaign due to the Achilles tendon tear that he suffered in the first round of the playoffs. He’s an unrestricted free agent, so he can sign with any team of his choosing at any time, but he’s likely in no rush for now.

Beyond that, the next-best options are all restricted free agents. Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey, Philadelphia 76ers guard Quentin Grimes and Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas are the four who may be gumming up the free-agent market at large.

The Nets are the only remaining team with significant salary-cap space, so options are running low for anyone who’s hoping to land a big payday this offseason. Sign-and-trades could open up additional possibilities, although base-year-compensation rules would complicate that for any restricted free agents who are eyeing a significant raise.

As the Warriors, Bulls, Sixers and Nets await decisions from their respective RFAs, they’re somewhat stuck for the time being. Those four might be the next big dominoes that have to fall before free-agent activity picks back up across the league.

The Kuminga Roadblock

Of the four notable RFAs on the market, Kuminga has long seemed like the biggest flight risk. According to Anthony Slater of The Athletic, he has “long held a dream of evolving into a star wing capable of driving an offense and leading a team,” but that isn’t likely to happen in Golden State as long as Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are still around.

Slater reported that the Sacramento Kings offered 2024 No. 13 overall pick Devin Carter, veteran big man Dario Šarić and two second-round picks in a sign-and-trade for Kuminga, but the Warriors “balked at what they felt was a buy-low attempt.” He added that the Warriors “have been searching for a promising young player plus a first-round pick in return for Kuminga” in a sign-and-trade.

Slater mentioned that “an eventual compromise and return to the Warriors” is still “very much on the table,” although he reported that the Bulls, Nets, Washington Wizards, Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks had “also registered varying levels of interest in him.” Either way, Kuminga’s uncertain future could be impacting the rest of what the Warriors do this offseason.

With only nine players under contract, the Warriors are currently $25 million below the $195.9 million first apron and $36.9 million below the $207.8 million second apron. Filling out the rest of their roster with veteran-minimum contracts alone would cost them at least an additional $10 million. The question then becomes whether they’ll retain Kuminga, as that could decide which version of the mid-level exception they have access to (if any).

If the Warriors used the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, they’d be hard-capped at the first apron, which wouldn’t leave much wiggle room for them to re-sign Kuminga. Instead, they figure to use the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception, which will hard-cap them at the second apron. However, they likely have no interest in hard-capping themselves at either apron until they know exactly what’s next for Kuminga.

That may be having a trickle-down effect on veteran center Al Horford, who’s been linked to the Warriors for the past few weeks. On Monday’s episode of ESPN’s NBA Today, Marc J. Spears of Andscape said the Warriors expected Horford to sign with them last week, although he has yet to do so. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon proceeded to tamp down concerns by saying that “the assumption around the league is that he will end up with the Warriors,” which begs the question of whether their delay in signing him is related to Kuminga.

Jake Fischer of The Stein Line recently reported that the Warriors are also “a strong contender” to re-sign De’Anthony Melton, who played only six games for them this past season before tearing his ACL. Like with Horford, the Warriors may be waiting to see how much Kuminga commands—and whether they decide to re-sign him—before devoting a specific dollar amount to Melton.

Grimes And Giddey

The Sixers find themselves in a similar boat with Grimes as the Warriors are with Kuminga.

After drafting VJ Edgecombe and Johni Broome, signing Trendon Watford to a two-year, veteran-minimum contract and re-signing Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry to one-year, vet-min deals, the Sixers currently have $188.1 million their books. That leaves them roughly $7.8 million below the first apron and $19.7 million below the second apron.

The Sixers could create slightly more wiggle room under the aprons by waiving Ricky Council IV, whose $2.2 million salary is fully nonguaranteed until Jan. 10. But if they’re hoping to use the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception, which would hard-cap them at the second apron, they need to know exactly how much Grimes is earning next year first.

Leading up to free agency, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported that Grimes was “looking for a contract that averages $25 million per season.” If he got anywhere near that, the Sixers would go soaring over the second apron and would lose access to any mid-level exception. Team president Daryl Morey recently cited that as the reason why the Sixers weren’t able to re-sign Guerschon Yabusele, who took a two-year, $11.3 million contract with the New York Knicks via their taxpayer MLE.

The Bulls are currently $38.6 million below the luxury-tax line, so they shouldn’t be too concerned about the aprons. (They’re $43.7 million below the first apron and $55.6 million below the second apron.) However, they haven’t crossed into luxury-tax territory since the 2015-16, and that isn’t likely to change this year.

If the Bulls also want to use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE, that would leave only $24.5 million for Giddey. Much like the Sixers and Warriors, they likely want to know Giddey’s exact starting salary before they embark upon the rest of their offseason business.

The Wild-Card Nets

The Nets entered free agency as the NBA’s biggest wild card, as they were the only team that had significant cap space this offseason. They’ve used most of that on trades (Michael Porter Jr., Tre Mann) rather than free agents, but they could still carve out nearly $25 million of spending power while keeping Thomas’ $12.1 million cap hold on their books.

The Nets only have $126.3 million in salary at the moment, and they have 16 players under contract, which is one higher than the regular-season roster limit. In other words, more changes are coming this offseason.

The Nets figure to spend the rest of their cap space before turning their attention to re-signing Thomas. Once they do, they should still be far enough under the luxury-tax line for that not to be a concern. However, they may want to keep their options open for the time being since they’re the only team left with actual cap space. If other teams need to shed salary in a multi-team trade, the Nets would be the obvious dumping ground.

Once Kuminga, Grimes and Giddey decide what to do, that’ll give the Warriors, Sixers and Bulls the information they need to move forward with the rest of their offseason plans. Until then, all three are in a holding pattern, which could be having a trickle-down effect on the remaining free-agent class at large.