Crypto Is Rallying, But How Will The Market React To This Week’s Inflation Data?

Key Insights

• Bitcoin is rallying, and investor optimism is at highs across the board.
• However, major inflation data including the CPI and updates from “crypto week’ are bound to affect prices.
• This is a very important week for the financial markets, and investors should be on alert.

The crypto market is riding high as Bitcoin continues to print new all time highs. However, the celebratory mood may be short-lived because the week between 14 and 20 July could be a very important one for the market.

This is because several key major U.S. economic reports are due to be released, including the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

In addition to these indicators, the U.S. government will be hosting Crypto Week, where lawmakers will debate and vote on several major crypto-related bills. Here’s what to be on the lookout for as an investor.

Bitcoin Hits New Highs Amid Growing Optimism

Over the weekend and into Monday morning in Asia, the crypto markets held onto last week’s gains and started climbing again. 

Bitcoin, in particular, pushed to a fresh ATH, sparking a broader rally among altcoins. The surge in price comes on the back of fresh optimism as institutional interest continues to grow. 

However, analysts are warning that much of this bullish momentum could be undone by some important macroeconomic developments.

CPI and PPI Reports Could Swing the Crypto Market

On Tuesday, July 15, the June CPI report will be released. For context, this report is a major inflation indicator that directly influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. 

Economists expect monthly CPI to rise by 0.3% and year-over-year CPI to hit 2.7%. This is also expected to be higher than last month and a sign that inflationary pressures are still building.

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to EU/Mexico Tariffs – Monday

2. June CPI Inflation data – Tuesday

3. June PPI Inflation data – Wednesday

4. June Retail Sales data – Thursday

5. July MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday

6. Total of 12 Fed speaker events this week…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 13, 2025

This will be followed by the June PPI report on Wednesday, which measures the cost of goods at the producer level. 

Analysts are expecting a 0.2%–0.3% month-over-month rise, which could be a pointer for further price increases downstream for consumers. If either of these reports comes in “hotter than expected,” investors may interpret it as a signal that the Fed will delay rate cuts, or even consider additional tightening. 

That scenario typically strengthens the U.S. dollar and pressures risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

On Thursday July 17, the June Retail Sales data will provide insight into how much American consumers are spending. 

A weak number, like the forecasted -0.5% month-over-month drop would suggest softening consumer demand and could shake investor confidence. On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected reading might fuel another leg up for crypto assets.

This is because this development would reinforce the view that the economy is still resilient despite inflation and high interest rates. Finally, on Friday, July 18, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published along with its long-term inflation expectations report. 

Analysts expect a slight rise to 61.4, up from June’s 60.7, and this indicator could influence whether the recent crypto rally continues or begins to falter.

U.S. Crypto Week As Regulatory Momentum Builds

Beyond inflation data, this week also features Crypto Week in the U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers will debate several high-impact bills like the GENIUS, CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

If any of these bills are passed, or even move forward in a meaningful way, it could give markets a strong regulatory signal. It could also ease concerns about legal uncertainty in the U.S.. Besides, it may even trigger a new wave of investment into the crypto space.

In short, this is a very important week for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. Bitcoin’s recent highs have lifted investor confidence, but that confidence could be tested in the coming days.