Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Consolidates Above $109K—Is a Major Fed-Fueled Move Coming?

Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range above $109,000 as investors await the Federal Reserve’s next policy signal, with ETF inflows and technical patterns hinting at an impending breakout.

After a relatively quiet week, Bitcoin price today hovers just above the $109K mark, consolidating around key technical levels as the crypto market braces for a possible jolt from the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes. As spot ETF inflows continue to build momentum, traders are watching for signs of a fresh breakout—or a deeper retracement—based on macroeconomic cues.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Technical Analysis Hints at Breakout Potential

The Bitcoin chart on both the daily and intraday timeframes reveals consolidation just above the $108,300 support zone. BTC has been forming a tight ascending triangle, currently trading between $108,200 and $109,600. Technically, the Bitcoin RSI indicator on the 30-minute chart sits near 53.8, recovering from previous bearish divergences, while the MACD shows mild bearish pressure but no decisive downside shift.

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart, with a breakout above $109,600 likely to trigger further upside momentum. Source: SEBASTIIAN74 on TradingView

If Bitcoin closes above the $109,600 resistance, it could pave the way for a move toward the May 22 high of $111,980. However, analysts caution that a daily close below $107,200 would signal a breakdown of bullish structure and invite further downside toward the $105,300 support, which aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Key Catalyst: Fed Minutes and ETF Momentum in Focus

As Bitcoin news today centers around macro policy and regulatory developments, all eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The minutes from the latest meeting, due later today, are expected to offer clues about the Fed’s rate strategy in Q3 2025. A more dovish stance could weaken the U.S. dollar and fuel fresh capital inflows into risk assets like BTC.

BTC Spot ETF Inflow chart. Source: SosoValue

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF news remains a major driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded consistent demand, with $80 million in net inflows reported on Tuesday alone, marking four consecutive days of institutional accumulation, according to SoSoValue. This steady inflow is seen as a sign of growing investor confidence in Bitcoin’s role as a store of value amid uncertain interest rate policy.

Adding to the ETF narrative, Trump Media has filed for five new crypto-focused ETFs with the SEC, including a proposed “Crypto Blue Chip ETF” that allocates 70% of its holdings to Bitcoin. If approved, this fund could significantly expand access to BTC via traditional investment channels.

Expert Insights: Volatility Is Low, But Traders Are Wary

According to K33 Research, Bitcoin implied volatility has dropped to yearly lows since May 22, suggesting that markets are in a “wait-and-see” mode. This is reflected in the options market, where skew metrics remain neutral across most timeframes.

K33 Research reports that Bitcoin price remains highly correlated with spot ETF inflows, while corporate treasury acquisitions have a lesser market impact. Source: CoinRank via X

As Bitcoin’s market behavior aligns more closely with traditional assets, some analysts argue it’s increasingly viewed as an inflation hedge, especially with rate-cut expectations looming on the horizon. This evolving perception could underpin a longer-term bullish outlook, even if short-term volatility persists.

Outlook: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

With Bitcoin price today hovering near $109,000, the market is at a critical juncture. A break above $109,600 could open the door to retest all-time highs near $112,000. Conversely, a drop below $108,355 may lead BTC toward the $105,000 region.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $109,034, up 0.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

As Bitcoin halving 2025 approaches, and with regulatory clarity gradually improving through ETFs and broader institutional interest, BTC remains well-positioned for growth—provided macroeconomic conditions align.

In the short term, Bitcoin’s next move will likely hinge on how markets interpret the Fed’s tone in the upcoming FOMC minutes. Until then, cautious optimism and range-bound price action may define the trading landscape.