Is the Cardano (ADA) Price Faking Weakness Before a Breakout?

Key Insights:

• Cardano (ADA) price has barely moved in weeks; classic setup for a stealth accumulation trap
• OBV divergence suggests big buyers are stepping in while retail remains sidelined
• Funding rates remain negative, meaning short sellers could get squeezed on the next breakout

Cardano (ADA) price might be faking the weakness. After sliding 12% in the past month, the ADA price has flatlined near $0.587 for much of July. But while retail attention slows down due to this, the data underneath the surface suggests something very different. A potential trap in the making. For the bears, mostly!

Funding Rate Still Negative Across Major Platforms

Despite stabilizing above $0.58, ADA’s funding rate hasn’t budged. Across Binance, Bybit, and others, the metric remains neutral to negative, meaning short sellers are still paying interest to bet against the price.

That’s usually a sign of disbelief. The crowd is leaning bearish, and it’s costing them. If momentum flips and ADA begins to climb, which is happening steady. This setup could fuel a short squeeze. This is where leveraged sellers are forced to buy back in as the ADA price rises.

Funding rate reflects the cost of holding perpetual futures positions. A negative rate shows that shorts are dominant, but also vulnerable if the trend reverses.

Exchange Netflows Signal Coins Are Moving Off Platforms

Exchange netflow data shows consistent outflows from trading venues. In other words, more ADA is being withdrawn than deposited, typically a sign that holders are moving tokens into long-term wallets.

This behavior often shows up during stealth accumulation phases.

It doesn’t guarantee an ADA price rally, but it shows that those holding ADA aren’t looking to sell at current levels. The lack of exchange supply limits sell-side pressure, which can amplify future price moves when demand returns.

ADA Holder Base Keeps Expanding

Wallet data points to a continued rise in total ADA holders. Over the past six months, the number of unique addresses has climbed to 4.5 million, a new yearly high.

This steady growth comes even as ADA slid from $0.90 to current levels near $0.58. Long-term investors are still entering, and that base of conviction can act as fuel if momentum kicks back in. The divergence between price stagnation and wallet growth often precedes broader trend reversals.

$381B in Trading Volume Over 12 Months

According to TapTools, Cardano has registered over $381 billion in trading volume in the last year. That puts it among the most traded crypto assets globally.

The figure is even more surprising given ADA’s underwhelming price performance in recent months. High volume suggests persistent interest, especially from traders and institutions who are not deterred by sideways price action. That level of liquidity can act as a catalyst when the next move begins.

Cardano Price Still Trapped; But OBV Divergence Hints at Pressure

On the charts, ADA price remains inside a descending triangle with resistance near $0.612 and support at $0.537. Also, it is currently trading at $0.58. The pattern typically breaks to the downside, but ADA hasn’t cracked yet.

Instead, On-Balance Volume (OBV) is flashing an early signal.

While price has remained flat, OBV has been rising a bit, which implies buying volume is entering without pushing the price. That’s often how accumulation begins; quietly, without drawing attention.

OBV tracks volume direction. When it rises while price stays flat, it suggests demand is increasing beneath the surface.

If Cardano price breaks $0.612, there’s little resistance until $0.66. But if it loses $0.537, the structure breaks bearish. For now, it’s a waiting game, but one where the data favors the bulls more than it appears.