Global Oil Output Steady, But Subtle Shifts Hint At Changes Ahead

Each year, the Statistical Review of World Energy offers important insights into global energy trends. Now published by the Energy Institute in collaboration with KPMG and Kearney, the 2025 edition—reflecting full-year 2024 data—reveals that global oil production and consumption remained relatively steady, but there are meaningful shifts underway.

These shifts reflect not only changing geopolitics and economic recovery patterns but also longer-term questions around energy security, investment priorities, and the uneven global evolution toward decarbonization.

Global Oil Consumption Hits New High

In 2024, global oil consumption–which excludes biofuels but includes coal and natural gas derivatives–reached 101.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The represents an all-time high that slightly surpassed the 2023 level by 0.7%. On average, oil demand has increased by 1% per year over the past decade, driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest oil consumer, accounting for 18.7% of global demand. Daily consumption in the U.S. fell slightly from 2023, but over the past decade it increased by 0.5% per year on average.

China was the world’s second-largest oil consumer, accounting for 16.1% of global demand. Its daily consumption fell 1.2% to 16.4 million bpd in 2024. This decline is a marked departure from the average 4% gain per year over the past decade, which means China’s oil demand may be showing signs of plateauing. With economic growth slowing and a push toward electrification of transportation underway, some analysts speculate China may be approaching its long-term oil demand peak.

Meanwhile, India’s oil consumption continues to surge, jumping 3.1% year-over-year to 5.6 million bpd. The nation’s economic expansion and rising middle class continue to drive growth, putting India on track to become the third-largest oil consumer globally within a few years.

OECD nations saw modest changes in oil demand (+0.1%) while non-OECD nations saw demand jump by 1.2%.

U.S. Leads All Producers to New Record

On the production side, global oil output (including natural gas liquids and other liquids) hit a record 96.9 million barrels per day. That’s 1.8 million barrels more than the pre-pandemic peak, and about 9% higher than the lows seen during the COVID-19 downturn. On the surface, it’s a story of resilience and recovery. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers reveal a more complicated picture.

The United States continues to lead the world in total oil production, clocking in at 20.1 million barrels per day. But that headline figure includes a sizable share of natural gas liquids—byproducts like ethane and propane that aren’t typically directly used as transportation fuels but may function as refinery feedstock.

Strip those out, and U.S. production of crude oil and condensate—the type of output most analysts consider “true oil”—comes in at 13.2 million barrels per day. Although this was yet another production record, the 2% increase from 2023 was less than half the 4.2% average annual gain over the previous decade, which could be an indication that U.S. production is close to a plateau.

Russia follows in second place at 10.2 million barrels per day of crude plus condensate. That was down 3.1% from 2023, largely due to the impact of Western sanctions and logistical constraints. However, Russian exports to China and India remained robust, helping the country maintain relevance in global energy markets despite diplomatic isolation.

Saudi Arabia also saw production fall by 4.2%. Saudi was in third place in 2024 with 9.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011. The drop reflects both voluntary production cuts to support prices and long-term questions about the Kingdom’s spare capacity amid heavy domestic investments in refining and petrochemicals.

Proved Reserves

The Statistical Review also sheds light on global oil reserves, although those are only available for the end of 2020. At that time, the world’s proven oil reserves stood at 1.7 trillion barrels—enough to sustain current production levels for roughly 53.5 years. However, the distribution of those reserves remains highly uneven.

Venezuela still holds the largest proved reserves, at 304 billion barrels, but much of that oil is heavy and difficult to extract. Saudi Arabia is second with 298 billion barrels, followed by Iran at 158 billion. The U.S., by contrast, holds 69 billion barrels—reflecting both a mature production base and a reserve classification system that tends to be more conservative.

Unusual Developments and Emerging Themes

A few notable trends emerged from this year’s data:

• Saudi Arabia’s Output Decline: The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it’s the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share.
• U.S. Efficiency and NGLs: While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies.
• Flat Growth in Global Reserves: The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn’t moderate.
• India’s Ascent: India’s rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics.
• Guyana’s Rise: Guyana’s meteoric rise from zero to over 600,000 barrels daily in just five years is one of the fastest production ramps in oil industry history. With reserves now estimated at 11 billion barrels, Guyana is projected to reach 1 million barrels daily soon, potentially becoming a top-five global producer within the decade.

Outlook: Stability or Strain?

Oil markets in 2024 were defined by an uneasy equilibrium. On the one hand, production and consumption were closely matched, and price volatility was relatively contained. On the other, the factors holding that balance together—OPEC+ coordination, U.S. shale resilience, and subdued global demand growth—are all subject to disruption.

Looking ahead, several questions loom:

• Will China’s oil demand begin to decline in absolute terms?
• Can U.S. shale sustain output without massive reinvestment?
• Will geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Russia, or elsewhere upset the delicate supply-demand balance?

These aren’t just market questions—they are strategic ones that affect global inflation, trade, and energy security.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Statistical Review confirms that oil is still very much at the center of the global economy. Demand is growing in the developing world, production remains concentrated among a handful of players, and supply vulnerabilities persist.

In the coming weeks, I’ll continue to unpack key findings from the Statistical Review, including natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear power trends. But one thing is clear from the oil data: in a world increasingly focused on energy transition, the importance of oil—economically and geopolitically—hasn’t gone anywhere.