Subway Series Odds Dwindle As New York Teams Suffer Slumps

With the baseball season half-finished, the chances of a rematch between last year’s World Series teams are fading fast.

The New York Yankees, who won the 2024 American League pennant before losing a five-game Fall Classic to the Los Angeles Dodgers, fell out of first place on Independence Day weekend as an agonizing slump seemed to grip the entire team.

Their once-feared power seemed to evaporate, their bullpen remained unreliable, their starting pitching suffered several season-ending injuries, and the defense proved so putrid that team captain Aaron Judge took an errant fly ball to the face from teammate Anthony Volpe when he wasn’t looking.

Although Judge was well on his way toward a second straight MVP award, his hopes of a rare Triple Crown dimmed when suddenly-sensational Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh soared ahead of him in home runs. The 6’7″ Judge also read the riot act to teammates for their poor play.

Swagger Gone?

Except for Judge, former MVP Cody Bellinger, and Max Fried, a stalwart southpaw signed as a free agent last winter, the Yankees seemed to lack their usual confidence – maybe even swagger – that they would win whenever they stepped onto the field. Losing Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery didn’t help.

Their plight in the American League East wasn’t much better than status of their crosstown neighbors, the New York Mets. Billed as the Kings of Queens before the season started, the Mets had to overcome a slow start from Juan Soto, pilfered from the Yankees via free agency at a record cost of $765 million and 15 years.

Soto finally warmed with the weather, teaming with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor to provide power for a team known for too many runners on base. But then the pitching caved, with Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning all sidelined at the same time. Luckily for the Mets, Edwin Diaz won an All-Star berth with a nightly strong showing in the ninth inning.

Instead of the expected tri-cornered race for the National League East title, the Mets faced only one serious opponent (Philadelphia) after Atlanta’s offense amounted to little more than the two-man show of Ronald Acuña, Jr. and Matt Olson, both of them All-Stars.

Braves Hibernate

Acuña and strikeout pitcher Spencer Strider both missed most of the first two months but their return coincided with injuries to AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) and Chris Sale (fractured left rib cage). An 80-day suspension kept free agent signee Jurickson Profar sidelined at the start, making left field the weakest spot in the lineup, though former All-Stars Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna snoozed all season at the plate.

Age proved no object for Philadelphia, which banked on the league’s best (and healthiest) rotation, led by Zack Wheeler, and the rabid cheers of partisan fans at Citizens Bank Park. Even when two-time MVP Bryce Harper was sidelined, the Phils found ways to win – thanks to Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, both turning in All-Star seasons, and trade acquisition Jesus Luzardo.

The Central Divisions of both leagues have not even been competitive. The Chicago Cubs, buoyed by trade pickup Kyle Tucker and suddenly-successful Pete Crow-Armstrong, took over the top of the NL Central in early April and stayed there, leaving the Brewers and Cardinals to contend for wild-card spots. The Cubs even managed without injured pitchers Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga.

The path to the pennant has been even easier for the Detroit Tigers. When the week started, their lead was 13½ games over the second-place Minnesota Twins and 14 over the Kansas City Royals. If not for Fried, Tarik Skubal would have his second straight Cy Young in the bag by now.

Veteran Javy Baez, who plays everything but the bass fiddle, returned to his former All-Star form, joining Skubal and slugging left-fielder Riley Greene on the AL roster.

Astros Again

The leader of the American League West also had a healthy bulge over its runner-up, with the Houston Astros out-pacing the Seattle Mariners. Although the M’s have never won a pennant, Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh could collect enough home runs to dethrone defending MVP Aaron Judge.

Yes, we saved the best for last.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, seeking to become the first repeat world champions since the 2001 Yankees, once had 14 pitchers on the injured list. Free agent signee Blake Snell contributed just two starts and Shohei Ohtani didn’t start pitching before June. But Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts formed a torrid top-of-the-order and all made the NL All-Stars, along with catcher Will Smith.

Thanks to the game’s only $400 million payroll, the Dodgers entered the week with the second-best record in baseball at 56-35 (.615 winning percentage). Only Detroit, at .626, was doing better.

Both the Padres and Giants were 7½ games out after the holiday weekend but San Diego will get a major boost from the return of injured pitcher Yu Darvish. San Francisco, which already acquired a big bat in Boston’s Rafael Devers, has shored up its defenses with the activation of Matt Chapman, a smooth-fielding third baseman.

According to Roster Resource, the Dodgers and Mets are the only teams in the majors that maintain player payrolls in excess of $300 million. Both have wealthy owners willing to spend even more if such expenditures result in more wins.

The Mets have not won a World Series since 1986 though they have reached the final round as recently as 2015.

With the July 31 trade deadline only two weeks beyond the Atlanta All-Star Game, contenders and would-be contenders are eying the rosters of bottom-feeders to fill the few holes on their rosters. Pitchers Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins and Walker Buehler of the Red Sox – both free agents this fall – are among those reported to be on the block.