Bitcoin Price MVRV Bounce Hints at a Spring-Loaded Price Move Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) price is back near its all-time high, but this move feels different. It is holding just under $109,000, but some key signals suggest the rally isn’t overheated yet.

In fact, one old metric is flashing a setup last seen during the $75K run. Short-term holders are barely in profit, which is rare this late into a cycle. That could mean the next move catches the market off guard.

Bitcoin Price MVRV Shows Room to Run

The short-term holder MVRV Z-score is now back at levels seen when BTC price was at $75,000. That’s what makes this setup interesting.

Today, Bitcoin price is nearly 45% higher, but short-term wallet profitability still looks flat.

According to OnChainCollege, a crypto-analyst, that divergence is rare. It’s the kind of setup that shows buyers aren’t rushing to sell. Historically, when MVRV rebounds like this, price follows.

Back in September 2024, MVRV hit the same trendline bottom when BTC was $54,000. A few weeks later, Bitcoin broke through resistance. That same trendline is now being retested.

The standard MVRV-Z score chart reiterates this finding. While the indicator measures the profitability of the Bitcoin holders, a higher number (7 to 10) often suggests market tops.

At present, the score is between 3 and 4, even with the Bitcoin price trading close to its ATH.

Whale Sentiment Has Quietly Flipped

Whale traders seem to be warming up. The blue line in Alphractal’s chart, which tracks big-position sentiment, has bounced hard off June lows. It went from around 0.66 to nearly 1.12 in less than a week.

That’s not small. This kind of rise shows whales are adding to their long positions again. Last time this number pushed above 1.0, Bitcoin price moved up sharply from $97K to $111K.

The price is still stuck just under $109K. But if this whale activity keeps climbing, it might not stay stuck for long.

Stablecoins Still Sitting in Wait

There’s more ammunition left in the system. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is still holding at 17.9, according to CryptoQuant. That’s a high level, which means much of the stablecoin capital is already deployed.

A simpler way of looking at this is that high SSR means that there isn’t a lot of reserve capital on the sidelines.

And that might also mean that the move till now hasn’t relied on fresh capital inflow. That indicates hidden strength.

It shows that the Bitcoin price might have more legroom to grow if the SSR drops. But it hasn’t dropped off.

That shows money hasn’t exited. Instead, it’s sitting on the edge, waiting for a clear BTC price breakout. If SSR dips lower from here, it would usually mean stablecoins are rotating into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Resistance Is There; So Is Pressure

BTC has been bouncing around $109,000 for a while now. Price tapped that zone last week, then dropped to $106K, only to bounce back again.

That usually means one thing: pressure is building. If Bitcoin price closes strong above $109K, traders may eye $112K as the next pitstop.

But if this fails again, eyes go back to MVRV. The disconnect between price and profitability won’t stay open forever.

The move isn’t over. Not yet. MVRV, whale positions, and stablecoin data are all pointing to the same thing: this rally hasn’t lost steam.

If $109K cracks, it could be the start of the next breakout phase. For now, the spring is still loading.