Nationals James Wood Is A Force Of Nature, MLB’s Newest Megastar

In one of the largest miscarriages of justice recently seen in major league baseball, Nationals LF James Wood was not named as a finalist for the starting lineup in this year’s All Star Game in Atlanta. Ultimately, this will not be a big deal – Wood has been so good in his age 22 season that he is shoo-in to be named as a reserve for the NL club. He’s taken his place not only as one of the game’s elite young players, but as one of the game’s elite players, period.

Wood first became a household name to many at the 2022 trading deadline, when he was the featured prospect in the hefty return received by the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade. And the Nats got a whole lot more than Wood in that deal, which sent Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. That’s a frontline superstar, a top of the rotation starter, a high-end shortstop and more. Job well done by the Washington front office.

Wood was a household name to prospect watchers long before that trade. The 2021 2nd round pick was an impact performer as he rocketed through the minor leagues. Each season I prepare a list of top minor league position player prospects based on statistical performance and age relative to league and level. Wood earned very high rankings in three consecutive seasons – #10 in 2022, #17 in 2023 and #4 in 2024. Not too many players in recent memory can boast of such a run. And the tools matched the numbers, at the very least. Wood can fly on the bases and is at least an average corner outfielder, in addition to the impact bat.

As even the most casual onlooker can see, the gap between the upper minors and the majors has grown in recent seasons. Even the best minor league prospect has no guarantee of success at the MLB level, especially in his first taste of big league pitching. Wood was just fine last year, batting .264-.354-.427 with a 120 wRC+. He crushed the baseball, with an overall average exit speed of 92.8 mph, over a full standard deviation higher than league average. His average exit speeds by batted ball type all exceeded league average by that amount, and his walk rate was over a standard deviation above league average. Negatives? A high K rate (again, over a standard deviation higher than average) and a very low average launch angle at 2.9 degrees. All in all, my batted ball-based “Tru” Production+ level of 120 exactly matched his wRC+.

About that low launch angle…….many look at it as a flaw or shortcoming, while I see it as an opportunity. When you hit the ball as hard as Wood does, the floor is pretty high and the ceiling is stratospheric. It evokes images of Christian Yelich as a young Marlin. His average launch angles were 2.6 and 4.7 degrees in his last two years in south Florida. In 2016, Yelich actually had a higher average exit speed than Wood’s rookie mark at 93.3 mph. If only he elevated his fly ball rate and average launch angle even slightly, he could win an MVP award, I reasoned. And that’s exactly what happened.

Wood has made strides across the board in this, his first full major league season. His average exit speed is up to 94.0 mph, and his marks by batted ball type are up across the board. His K rate, while still high, is down from 28.9% to 26.8%, and his BB rate has shot up even farther, to 14.5%. His average launch angle remains low at 5.9 degrees, but his fly ball percentage is up by a full 10.0% to 31.7%. His slash line is up to .283-.386-.552 with a 156 OPS+ through Monday’s games. He’s had a small amount of good fortune on balls in play, and has a “Tru”+ of 149. But as good as his present is, his future could be overwhelming.

His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 280 is way up there near the 300ish level where only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and yes, Juan Soto tend to regularly reside. Soto, who admittedly possesses a superior K/BB profile to Wood, also maintained fairly low average launch angles in his formative years, only first posting an average range fly ball rate last season with the Yankees. Bottom line, the current version of James Wood is just fine, thank you, but the souped-up version could be just plain scary.

He lacks any of the typical shortcomings of the young, promising lefthanded hitter. He’s not an excessive ground ball puller – he uses the entire field liberally. And he handles himself very well vs. lefthanded pitching, batting a more than respectable .278-.342-.519 against them thus far this season. His 6’7″, 234, frame evokes a young Judge, and he’s exhibited the durability to regularly stay on the field thus far in his pro career.

There is absolutely no telling how good Wood can be if he totally maxes out. If he can continue to ease his K rate down into the league average range, .300+ averages should become the norm. And a league average fly ball rate, certainly a possibility down the road, could make him a 60 homer guy……with upside above that, perish the thought.

So enjoy the show, everyone. Watching guys like this come along and begin to figure out just how good they can be doesn’t happen every day.