Bitcoin confirms its evolution as a global-scale asset, reaching record capitalization levels and surprising with the resilience demonstrated in recent weeks.
An in-depth analysis of financial flows, investor behaviors, and demand indicators offers a clear overview of the current strength of the market and its future prospects.
Bitcoin and the growth of capitalization in recent months
The current market capitalization of Bitcoin has reached 2.1 trillion dollars, a figure that represents the impressive growth and maturation towards a multi-trillion asset. In parallel, the Realized Cap – that is, the valuation based on the most recent transaction price of each coin – now stands at 955 billion.
The data shown in the Glassnode weekly report tells an important story: on one hand, a massive influx of capital into the system; on the other, the progressive transition of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a global store of value. The difference between market cap and realized cap represents the unrealized profit held by investors, which currently stands at 1.2 trillion dollars. This significant flow highlights both the potential for further bull runs and the possibility of selling pressure should sentiment shift.
Recent fluctuations: between geopolitics and technical supports
Last week, the increasing tensions between Israel and Iran triggered strong volatility, causing the price to drop from 106,000 to 99,000 dollars. However, the market found a solid support at the Short-Term Holder cost basis of 98,300 dollars, a level that often separates bull and bear phases.
The ability to maintain this support in a situation of high uncertainty still suggests a prevalence of buyers and a momentum that remains oriented to the bull.
Unrealized profits: a significant boost for Bitcoin
Today, the majority of investors in Bitcoin hold significant unrealized profits. According to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) report, the average increase in prices (“paper gain”) is +125% compared to the average purchase cost. This value, although lower than the +180% recorded at the peaks of March 2024, reflects the rapid growth of the capital base locked in the network.
An analysis of the coin age cohorts indicators shows that the recent price contraction has not significantly affected this profitability. On the contrary, the sentiment remains positive among investors of all ages, reinforcing the idea of an underlying context that is still constructive for the market.
HODLing and decrease in selling pressure
Despite the wide profit margin on paper, the behavior of investors suggests a strong propensity for accumulation and holding (“HODLing”). The profits actually realized in recent weeks have remained contained, just 872 million dollars daily – much less compared to the peaks of previous bull waves.
The most significant data concerns the supply held by Long-Term Holders, now reaching 14.7 million BTC, a historical high that demonstrates investors’ readiness to maintain their positions even at current prices. Additionally, the Liveliness parameter – which measures the balance between accumulation and spending – shows a downward trend, a clear signal that spending one’s BTC is not yet considered attractive by the majority of participants.
A market equilibrium driven by the demand for stablecoins
The stablecoin have established themselves as fundamental components of liquidity in digital markets, acting as “gunpowder” ready for the purchase of digital assets. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) indicator – which measures the stablecoin purchasing power relative to the supply of Bitcoin – is currently near equilibrium levels. This reflects a potential underlying strength in demand, especially when compared to previous breakouts above $100,000, when the SSR was much higher.
In parallel, the trend of the Exchange Buying Power (variation in the availability of stablecoins relative to BTC/ETH inflows on exchanges) suggests that the market is witnessing a rotation of liquidity from stablecoins directly towards Bitcoin and other main assets. If this dynamic continues, it could provide further support to the valuations of digital assets.
Institutional Inflows and Long-Term Support
With the growth of Bitcoin capitalization, the push from institutional investors becomes increasingly significant. The net flows into Bitcoin ETF Spot USA show a steady growth: the weekly average has reached +298 million dollars, confirming the consistent buying pressure from large regulated financial operators.
This trend highlights how institutional appetite remains strong even at current valuations, acting as a fundamental demand driver while the invested masses reach unprecedented levels.
Implications for the future of the Bitcoin market
The rebound from the technical supports of 98,300 dollars has brought the majority of investors back into positive territory, with the aggregate unrealized profit at 1.2 trillion dollars. However, despite the widespread strong profitability, on-chain data confirms a clear prevalence of the HODL approach: the propensity to sell remains low, and the indicators of volatility and coin distribution are decreasing.
In the meantime, the demand for stablecoin and institutional inflows further consolidate the framework, suggesting a still wide growth potential. In this scenario, closely monitoring the development of the main demand indicators, as well as the reactions to geopolitical and market movements, proves crucial for interpreting the upcoming evolutions of the Bitcoin price.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/07/02/bitcoin-the-return-to-profitability-pushes-btc-towards-new-highs/