After Freshmen Dominate NBA Draft, Expect Trend To Continue In 2026

Starting in 2006, the NBA declared that players could no longer enter the draft out of high school, meaning nearly all of the best preps played at least one year in college. Since then, 100 college freshmen have been selected among the top 10 in the NBA draft. This year, a record nine freshmen were top 10 picks and a record 18 were selected in the first round, including Duke’s Cooper Flagg, who was the 16th freshman in the past 20 drafts to be the No. 1 overall selection.

The trend is expected to continue next year. Mock drafts for 2026 from ESPN and The Athletic indicate that several incoming college freshmen are projected to be first round picks a year from now. Four freshmen are in the mix for the No. 1 overall selection, including guard Darryn Peterson (Kansas), who is slotted as the best prospect, according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie.

Peterson, who is 6-foot-5, grew up in Ohio but played his junior year at Huntington Prep School in West Virginia and his senior year at Prolific Prep in California. Early in his junior year, Peterson became the first high school player to sign a Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deal with adidas, which has long had a deal with Kansas. In 2019, Kansas announced an extension of its adidas contract through 2031 even though the school and company were embroiled in the college basketball FBI scandal that saw a former adidas executive agree to pay nearly $350,000 to Kansas.

Peterson should step into the Kansas starting lineup and play a major role for a team that entered the past two seasons ranked first in the Associated Press poll but failed to advance past the second round of the NCAA tournament either year. The Jayhawks’ top six scorers from last season are gone, so they will not be near the top of the preseason polls. Still, CBS Sports analyst Gary Parrish has Kansas 18th in his most recent preseason poll thanks to a recruiting class highlighted by Peterson, who could be a preseason All-American. Peterson is the most highly touted freshman to enroll at Kansas since Josh Jackson in 2016. Jackson was the No. 1 recruit in the 247Sports Composite and was the No. 4 pick in the 2017 draft.

Peterson could become the first Kansas player since Andrew Wiggins in 2014 to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Danny Manning (1988) is the only other Jayhawk picked with the top selection.

Forwards A.J. Dybantsa (BYU) and Cameron Boozer (Duke) are two other talented incoming freshmen. Dybantsa is No. 2 in Givony’s list and No. 3 according to Vecenie, while Boozer is No. 3 and No. 2, respectively.

Dybantsa, who is 6-foot-9, grew up in Massachusetts before transferring to Prolific Prep, where he played for a year. He spent his senior season at Utah Prep Academy, about 250 miles from BYU’s campus. The Cougars reportedly are paying Dybantsa millions of dollars in NIL money. Vecenie wrote that he has “seen Dybantsa disappear too often” but noted that “when he’s at his best, his upside is better than anyone else as the kind of apex wing that every team wants.” Givony wrote that Dybantsa “didn’t have a great season” at Utah Prep but that the wing improved at this month’s USA Basketball U19 World Cup.

Dybantsa is currently in Switzerland playing for Team USA in the FIBA U19 World Cup. He averaged 17 points in the first two games, both victories. Team USA returns to action Tuesday against Cameroon.

Boozer, meanwhile, is a consistent player whose effort is never lacking and who has won nearly every title at the high school level. Boozer, the son of former NBA forward Carlos Boozer, won four consecutive state championships playing for Columbus (FL) High School in Miami alongside his twin, Cayden, a guard who is also heading to Duke. The brothers won three Nike EYBL Peach Jam titles in a row, too. Boozer, who is 6-foot-8, could be Duke’s leading scorer next season, while his brother could be a starter or at least play major minutes off the bench. Cayden Boozer is not listed as an NBA draft pick next year.

Nate Ament, a 6-foot-10 forward, is the other freshman who has a chance to go No. 1 next year. Ament, a Tennessee signee, is fourth in Givony’s and Vecenie’s rankings. He should see plenty of action with the Volunteers and will face tough competition in the Southeastern Conference, giving scouts numerous chances to see how Ament can perform against older, more experienced players.

Besides those elite four, other freshmen to watch for next year’s draft who are in the top 20 according to both Givony and Vecenie are Louisville point guard Mikel Brown (ranked No. 5 by Givony and No. 6 by Vecenie), North Carolina wing Caleb Wilson (No. 8 in both rankings), UConn wing Braylon Mullins (No. 19 and No. 7), Houston forward Chris Cenac Jr. (No. 11 and No. 14), Duke forward Nikolas Khamenia (No. 13 and No. 17) and Arizona forward Koa Peat (No. 18 and No. 11).

Of course, none of these players have even appeared in a college game, and there’s plenty of time for professional scouts to monitor their progress and identify others who could succeed at the next level. Still, as of now, it looks like at least 10 of the 30 picks in next year’s NBA draft will be college freshmen, making it the 12th consecutive year that would have occurred.