Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Gains 23% Despite Weak On-Chain Signals, $505 Next?

Bitcoin Cash is bucking the trend. While most large-cap cryptocurrencies have struggled through a quiet June, BCH has climbed over 23%, breaking past key resistance and edging closer to the $500 mark.

It’s one of the month’s few standout performers, and traders are paying attention. Volume has surged, and price momentum looks strong on the surface.

But a closer look tells a more cautious story. Despite the sharp move, on-chain metrics show only a slight uptick in address activity, and there’s no clear catalyst driving the rally.

That raises the key question: is this breakout the start of a longer move, or just another short-term pop in an uncertain market?

Bitcoin Cash Volume Picks Up, But Still Has a Long Way to Go

One of the earliest signs of momentum came from a sharp jump in trading volume. Around mid-June, Bitcoin Cash saw its daily volume climb from under $350 million to nearly $500 million; a move that lined up with its breakout past the $445 resistance level.

But context matters. At its peak in December 2024, BCH’s volume topped $1.2 billion during its push above $600. Compared to that, the current volume still looks light.

So while the spike shows fresh interest, it’s not yet a signal of conviction buying. The rally appears to be driven more by opportunistic traders than by sustained accumulation.

BCH Builds Momentum, But Resistance Still Looms

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has carved out a classic bullish structure, forming an ascending triangle with higher lows since late May.

It’s now pressing up against a key resistance zone between $504 and $565; the same ceiling that cut short the November 2024 rally.

If bulls manage a clean breakout and hold above this range, the door opens for a move toward $600–620. But if price stalls again, it could mark another local top.

Momentum-wise, RSI is sitting around 64 :strong, but not overheated. There’s no obvious divergence in sight yet, though traders still lack a clear green light for a full breakout continuation.

On-Chain Activity Shows Modest Uptick in Addresses

While the price and volume picture shows acceleration, wallet activity remains subdued. Active addresses have risen from an average of 30,000–32,000 earlier in Q2 to 38,000–39,000 recently.

This is a healthy uptick, but nowhere near the kind of parabolic address expansion seen in previous bull cycles.

The modest rise suggests that this rally is not primarily being driven by new entrants or mass retail participation. It’s more likely a combination of existing holders rotating capital and traders chasing momentum.

Bitcoin Cash is outperforming its peers in June. The volume breakout, bullish structure, and 18% price gain paint a strong picture on the surface.

But without deeper on-chain conviction, such as a surge in unique wallets, ecosystem usage, or fundamental catalysts, the sustainability of the move remains uncertain.

In the absence of strong fundamentals, BCH’s rally remains vulnerable to short-term corrections, especially if the broader market turns risk-off. The next 72 hours could be critical.

A clean break above $505, followed by a volume-backed retest of $565, would flip the outlook to structurally bullish. But a failure to break through could reset the momentum and send prices back to the $440 zone.