The Tampa Bay Rays Are The Hottest Team In Baseball

It’s not always easy to spot a turning point when it occurs. It’s easier to recognize it in retrospect. That’s the case for the surging Tampa Bay Rays, who started the year 21-26, but are just one game behind the New York Yankees in the American League East.

The Rays were struggling five weeks ago, and they trailed the Houston Astros 2-0 going into the eighth inning on May 20. They tied the score on a two-run double by Jonathan Aranda, then won it in the bottom of the ninth on a sacrifice fly. That kicked off a streak of winning six in a row, nine out of 11, and 13 out of 16. They’re 23-9 since that day, giving them an overall record of 44-35.

Aranda has been one of the primary catalysts in their hot streak. He entered the season with a .222 batting average and 97 OPS+ over parts of three seasons, indicating his total offense was 3% below the league average. This year, he’s hitting a robust .335/.416/.490 with a 156 OPS+ as the regular first baseman. Two days ago, he climbed into third place in the All-Star voting at his position.

It’s no surprise to see second baseman Brandon Lowe and designated hitter Yandy Díaz leading the attack at the top of the order. Díaz is the leadoff hitter with a .289/.338/.470 batting line and a 126 OPS+, while Lowe bats second, hitting .264/.314/.461 with a 116 OPS+.

In the third spot is 21-year-old third baseman Junior Caminero, who is coming into his own in his first full season. The former top-five overall prospect leads the team with 19 home runs and is contributing a 130 OPS+, even though he’s on pace to set a single-season MLB record for grounding into the most double plays.

On the pitching side, Tampa Bay’s greatest advantage has been exceptional durability. The rotation of Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, and Drew Rasmussen have started every game except one this season. Rasmussen has been the ace of the staff, and he’ll likely be an All-Star with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.

Their staff has only issued 215 walks in 79 games, which is the second-fewest in MLB. They have a 3.56 ERA, which is half a run better than the league average, despite playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field—the Yankees’ spring facility and a hitter-friendly environment.

While the Rays don’t having to worry about trading for a starting pitcher, they will surely seek to lengthen their lineup before the trade deadline. Taylor Walls is an excellent defensive shortstop, but he’s a major liability at the plate with a .217/.296/.300 batting line and a 70 OPS+.

Center fielder Kameron Misner was jut sent down and Chandler Simpson was just called back up to take his place. Misner was hitting .213 with a .273 on-base percentage. Simpson played extensively earlier this season, hitting .276 with 19 stolen bases, but with few walks and little power, he only posted a 75 OPS+.

Utility man José Caballero has been a starter without a position, lining up everywhere except first base and catcher. He has a .332 on-base percentage and leads MLB with 29 stolen bases. His versatility gives the Rays options at the trade deadline. They can either add a shortstop or an outfielder, then plug Caballero into the other spot.

The Rays have been the hottest team in baseball over the last month. If their strong play continues, they could overtake the Yankees at the top of the division shortly.