Polymarket Predicts 89% Chance of GENIUS Act Becoming U.S. Law

Highlights:

• Polymarket traders predict 89% chance of GENIUS Act becoming law after Senate approval
• The bill proposes licensing, 100% reserves, and audits for U.S. and foreign stablecoin issuers
• Concerns rise over Trump’s influence and potential corporate stablecoin launches if the bill passes

The GENIUS Act aims to regulate stablecoin issuers under a federal licensing framework with clear compliance requirements. It mandates 100% reserve backing, regular audits for large issuers, and oversight of foreign entities serving U.S. customers.

After clearing the Senate in a 68-30 vote, it is now pending a House vote before reaching the President. Polymarket users began placing large wagers following the Senate vote, pushing the bill’s odds of success to 89%.

Source : Polymarket

The rapid increase in betting reflects a strong belief in imminent legislative action on digital asset policy. Despite its unofficial nature, Polymarket’s market is often seen as a proxy for informed sentiment.

Industry Reacts as Traders Expect Law Passage

Crypto investors view the GENIUS Act as a critical turning point for stablecoin oversight in the U.S. Some believe the bill provides clarity and trust needed to expand institutional adoption of stablecoins.

Others worry strict requirements may hinder innovation or push smaller issuers out of the market. Critics have also raised concerns about political influence over the process, especially regarding Trump’s support.
Questions have emerged about his ties to firms like World Liberty Financial, linked to USD1 stablecoin. Observers fear regulatory favouritism if these connections are not scrutinized before the law is finalized.

House Vote and Corporate Interest Add Pressure

The GENIUS Act must now navigate the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority and further debate is expected. Lawmakers may amend the bill to address compliance costs or influence from major stakeholders.

Trump has signaled support, but only if the bill reaches him without additional changes or delays. Meanwhile, reports suggest tech giants like Apple and Google are exploring stablecoin launches under this framework.

Meta has also received inquiries from Congress about similar digital currency initiatives if the act passes. The potential entry of large corporations could reshape the stablecoin landscape and shift market dominance.

CLARITY Act Adds to Regulatory Push

Alongside the GENIUS Act, the House is advancing the CLARITY Act to define digital asset market structure. It passed the House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees with strong majorities and awaits a full vote.

If both acts pass, they will establish the first unified crypto legal framework in the U.S. Congressman French Hill emphasized the importance of these bills for America’s digital finance leadership.

Together, they could open regulated paths for stablecoin growth, blockchain innovation, and tokenized payment systems. 

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