Jockey Junior Alvarado reacts aboard Sovereignty (2), after winning the 157th running of the Belmont … More
With the first half of the 2025 racing season in the books, the race for Horse of the Year is heating up — and three standout contenders are emerging from the pack: Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) winner; Journalism, the Preakness (G1) hero and Derby and Belmont runner-up; and Fierceness, the 2-year-old Eclipse champion and winner of last year’s Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers Stakes (G1). Each colt has built a strong résumé, and how they perform in the upcoming summer and fall races will ultimately determine who takes home the sport’s most prestigious year-end honor.
Sovereignty: The Classic Closer
After winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and skipping the Preakness Stakes (G1), Sovereignty silenced all doubters with a dominant performance in the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. His powerful late kick and ability to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance in that race left a lasting impression. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Sovereignty has the pedigree and the progression to keep climbing, and he’ll likely target major summer and fall races like the Travers Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). A win in either — or both — could cement his status at the top.
The key to Sovereignty’s campaign will be consistency. He already has two classic wins and holds the edge over Journalism having beaten him twice, and if he adds another Grade 1 against older horses, the Horse of the Year trophy could be his to lose. His running style makes him dangerous in big fields with a hot pace — and with improving speed figures, he’s trending upward at just the right time.
Journalism: The Iron-Willed Warrior
If you’re looking for a fighter, look no further than Journalism. The son of Curlin has danced every dance, finishing a gritty second in the Kentucky Derby before outdueling the field in the Preakness Stakes. Perhaps his most impressive race of the year was a loss to the aforementioned Sovereignty in the Belmont. Trained by Mike McCarthy, Journalism has shown tactical speed, resilience, and perhaps most importantly, durability — a trait that’s often lacking in top 3-year-olds.
Journalism’s versatility means he could show up anywhere this summer: the Haskell Stakes (G1), Jim Dandy (G2), or even try older horses early in a race like the Whitney (G1) or Pacific Classic (G1). If he can stack another Grade 1 win on top of the Preakness and remain in the headlines through the fall, voters may reward his toughness and resume over raw brilliance. His case improves significantly if Sovereignty and Fierceness split their efforts or falter down the stretch.
Fierceness: The Forgotten Champion?
It might feel like Fierceness has faded from the conversation after his loss last out in the Met Mile (G1), but don’t count him out yet. The 2023 2-Year-Old Champion stormed into 2024 with a huge Florida Derby (G1) win before flopping badly in the Kentucky Derby. Todd Pletcher gave him some time off after that disappointment, he came back a beast, rattling off wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers before a very good second in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
he could still be a major Horse of the Year threat.
The Saratoga-based colt could be pointed towards races like the Whitney Stakes (G1) and the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), and it’s not impossible to imagine him winning both of those races.
Who’s Got the Edge?
As it stands now, Sovereignty probably holds the narrow lead due to his impressive Derby and Belmont wins. Journalism has consistency on his side but lacks the head-t0-head matchup record. Fierceness, meanwhile, represents the wildcard — the kind of horse who, with just one or two blowout wins, could rewrite the narrative late.
Ultimately, the Horse of the Year title will come down to the second half of the season. The Travers, Pennsylvania Derby, and Breeders’ Cup Classic loom large. All three contenders have the talent to win it all — now it’s just a matter of who can rise above the rest when it counts the most.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwelch/2025/06/19/horse-of-the-year-2025-sovereignty-journalism-or-fierceness/