Bitcoin’s Reaction to War: Stable, But Not Always Safe

Despite a major military escalation between Israel and Iran that started on June 13, 2025, Bitcoin’s price has remained surprisingly stable, and above $100,000. This isn’t a one-off. Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin is often more resilient during global conflict than many traditional assets—but the full story is more complex, with its reactions shaped by adoption, investor sentiment, and proximity to the conflict zone.

Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Opportunity?

Bitcoin typically dips immediately after geopolitical crises—wars trigger uncertainty, and Bitcoin, still perceived as a “risk-on” asset, gets dumped in early sell-offs. This initial volatility, however, often fades quickly as the market prices in new information and panic sellers become buyers. We’ll hold off from providing new Bitcoin price predictions for now, but Bitcoin is holding up, rather well, so far at least.

Bitcoin has dropped from the $109,000 level, but is holding strong above $100,000, Source BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index

Geographic and Institutional Context Matters

Where the war happens matters. Conflicts in or near developed markets with deep financial infrastructure (like the Middle East, Europe, or the U.S.) impact Bitcoin more than internal wars in less globally connected countries. That’s because:

• Adoption is global, but uneven. Per Chainalysis, the biggest on-chain crypto use is in developing nations—India, Nigeria, Indonesia—while ownership is consolidating among Western institutions.
  
• Institutional exposure is new and growing fast. As of late 2024, ETFs alone held 1% of all Bitcoin, more than Satoshi himself. BlackRock, the U.S. government, and Coinbase are now major stakeholders. This means Bitcoin is no longer the rogue outsider; it’s more tightly correlated with Wall Street.

From Risk-Off to Risk-On?

In its early years (e.g. during the 2014 Donbas War or the Gaza conflict), Bitcoin was too niche to react to global events. But now, with ETF listings, big corporate exposure, and daily mentions on CNBC, it’s behaving more like a tech stock than a bunker asset.

This could be a paradigm shift. Bitcoin’s resilience in previous conflicts doesn’t guarantee future safety. If conflict escalates to include true global economic disruption—like an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as QCP Capital warns—then Bitcoin may no longer be immune.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin Is Evolving

• Short-term: Bitcoin may dip at the start of a war due to panic selling, but usually recovers quickly.
  
• Medium-term: War-induced inflation and currency instability can benefit Bitcoin as a hedge.
  
• Long-term: Increasing institutionalization ties Bitcoin closer to global markets, meaning its future reactions could mirror equities more than gold.

In other words: Bitcoin isn’t a war-proof asset, but it’s proving to be more battle-hardened than skeptics give it credit for. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin reacts to war—it’s which wars, and whose wallets are holding the keys. For a full analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to global conflict events, head over to Coin Telegraph. 

Iran’s Largest Crypto Exchange Nobitex Hacked for $90M

A suspected Israeli hacktivist group has gutted Iran’s top crypto exchange — not for money, but for message.

In the latest salvo of an intensifying shadow war, a politically motivated hacking group calling itself Gonjeshke Darande (aka “Predatory Sparrow”) has claimed responsibility for an audacious breach of Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The attackers reportedly made off with over $90 million in crypto and are threatening to publicly release Nobitex’s internal source code and sensitive network data, framing the platform as a core node in Iran’s global terror-financing apparatus.

This isn’t a typical crypto heist. It’s cyberwar with a blockchain twist.

What Happened?

The group first took aim at Bank Sepah, Iran’s state-owned financial giant, before moving on to Nobitex, announcing their follow-up strike in a now-deleted but widely archived post on X (Twitter):

“After Bank Sepah, it was Nobitex’s turn… In 24 hours, we’ll release its source code and internal network data. Any assets left will be at risk.”

A blistering $90M in crypto was siphoned out, according to blockchain sleuths, including ZachXBT, who first flagged suspicious outflows across Bitcoin, Dogecoin, TRX, and various Ethereum-compatible (EVM) chains. Early on-chain tracking clocked $81.7M, but later estimates raised that to over $90M, split across multiple addresses with vanity tags like:

• 1FuckiRGCTerroristsNoBiTEXXXaAovLX
  
• DFuckiRGCTerroristsNoBiTEXXXWLW65t
  
• 0xffFFfFFffFFffFfFffFFfFfFfFFFFfFfFFFFDead
  

Subtlety was not the objective. 

The group is threatening to release the source code later today, Source: X

“Not About the Money” — A Political Burn

Unlike typical exploits, the Nobitex hack wasn’t about profit. According to a report from Elliptic, the attackers intentionally burned the funds by sending them to custom vanity addresses that are computationally infeasible to own. These aren’t just meme-laced addresses for style points — they’re mathematically unspendable. That means no one can recover the funds, including the hackers themselves.

“This wasn’t financially motivated,” Elliptic stated. “They torched the money to send a message.”

This act of economic arson sends a chilling signal: “We can take you offline — and we don’t even care about your money.”

Why Nobitex?

The hacktivist group accused Nobitex of being deeply entwined with Iran’s efforts to evade sanctions, alleging the platform has become a state-endorsed tool for funneling crypto payments across borders and into proxy networks. The language they used? They called Nobitex a “terror-financing tool at the heart of the regime.”

It’s a sharp escalation in an ongoing narrative where crypto meets geopolitics, and where exchanges become battlefield infrastructure.

Nobitex Responds

Nobitex acknowledged the attack in an X post, confirming a breach. The exchange wrote, “Nobitex Announcement No. 4 – Regarding the Security Incident  As part of Nobitex’s ongoing response to the recent security incident, we would like to inform our users that the situation is now under control. All external access to our servers has been completely severed.  If you check the current balances of Nobitex wallets on blockchain networks, you may notice a significant reduction in holdings. This is due to our own technical team’s proactive move to empty the hot wallets in order to protect user assets. 

There is no cause for concern regarding these wallets’ balances.  The stolen assets were transferred to a wallet with a non-standard address composed of arbitrary characters—an approach that deviates significantly from conventional crypto exchange hacks. These wallets were used to burn and destroy user assets. It is clear that the intention behind this attack was to harm the peace of mind and assets of our fellow citizens under false pretenses.  For our 11 million users, it is evident that Nobitex has always operated as an independent private business. 

This is further supported by the fact that, for the past eight months, our banking gateway has been blocked without any means to resolve the issue—an unfortunate situation beyond our control.  The stolen funds remain visible on blockchain networks, and due to the transparent nature of blockchain technology, the movement of assets from Nobitex can be publicly tracked.  The total value of stolen assets is currently estimated to be around $100 million.  Due to the simultaneous occurrence of national internet disruptions and emergency conditions, reaching our support team has become challenging. However, our technical team is working diligently to restore full support access as soon as possible, to provide users with further reassurance regarding their assets.  

In addition, the internet disruptions and blocked access to external servers may result in a longer-than-usual timeline for restoring user access to the platform. Nonetheless, Nobitex is doing everything in its power to accelerate this process.  We once again emphasize that user assets are covered by the Nobitex Reserve Fund, and no user funds will be lost. We remain committed to ensuring the safety of your holdings and maintaining your trust.  We thank our users for their patience and continued support during this difficult time. Further updates will be shared in upcoming announcements.”

The response from Nobiitex on X, Source: X

What Happens Now?

For Nobitex, the fallout could be existential. Source code leaks could expose vulnerabilities across the entire Iranian crypto ecosystem. Asset freezes or further siphoning may follow. And Iranian regulators — already walking a tightrope between embracing crypto for sanctions evasion and fearing capital flight — will likely respond with crackdowns or centralization moves.

For global crypto markets, though, the impact is muted. Nobitex serves a mostly local market, and the funds involved, while headline-worthy, are unlikely to shake institutional sentiment.

But the precedent? That’s huge. Crypto infrastructure is now fair game in geopolitical warfare — and its decentralized nature offers no safe harbor. The line between hacker, activist, and state actor just blurred further.