Blockchain transaction fees have plunged 50% since peaking in Q4 2024, but this cost decline could mark the beginning of a major upswing in on-chain activity, according to macro analyst Jamie Coutts.
Coutts, referencing his chart comparing global liquidity with SCP sector data, suggested that current conditions echo past inflection points where on-chain participation surged. He highlighted that while falling costs per transaction may reduce aggregate fees, the growing adoption curve will likely be driven by an explosion in usage volume.
“Imagine big-box retail, Amazon, and even government departments moving on-chain within the next few years,” Coutts wrote.
Fee Compression and Historical Cycles
The SCP Aggregate Daily Fees chart shows a structural decline in average fees since early 2024, dropping from over 35 million to below 18 million. Yet Coutts pointed to a pattern: previous drops in aggregate fees, when paired with rising global liquidity, were precursors to large-scale on-chain expansions.
This macro setup reflects the previous cycles observed in 2019 and 2021, where fee compression eventually gave way to spikes in usage. According to Coutts’ chart, SCP fees appear to be stabilizing in a tightening range, potentially setting the stage for another breakout if historical cycles repeat.
Institutional Use and On-Chain Migration
Coutts believes a new wave of institutional integration is inevitable, naming Amazon and government entities as likely entrants to blockchain-based operations. Lower costs and improved infrastructure could unlock scalable blockchain solutions across retail, logistics, and public administration.
Despite fee pressure, he argued that growing on-chain efficiency and global liquidity trends will enable blockchains to serve as foundational rails for the next era of digital economic activity.
If volume compensates for falling fees, as Coutts expects, the next phase could see on-chain networks absorbing significantly more transaction flow across enterprise and sovereign sectors alike.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/blockchain-fee-drop-signals-on-chain-activity-set-to-surge-says-jamie-coutts/