While on-chain analysis often leans heavily on micro-level signals like MVRV, SOPR, UTXO Value Bands, and Exchange Reserves, these metrics can sometimes distract from the broader macro cycles that govern Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, the BTC Yearly Percentage Trend is a more effective tool for understanding Bitcoin’s structural movements.
The 3+1 Cycle: A Halving-Aligned Pattern
Bitcoin’s yearly performance chart since 2011 reveals a compelling four-year rhythm: three years of price growth followed by one year of consolidation. This recurring pattern closely mirrors Bitcoin’s halving cycle, which affects supply dynamics and investor behavior.
In this structure, 2025 represents the third bullish year of the current cycle. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could rise approximately 120% this year, based on average third-year gains in previous cycles. With a starting point of $93,226, this would imply a potential year-end target near $205,097.
Supported by Broader On-Chain Metrics
This thesis is reinforced by other macro indicators. Realized Cap—a measure of the total value of coins based on their last moved price—continues to reach all-time highs in 2025, signaling persistent accumulation and conviction among long-term holders.
Importantly, the Yearly Percentage Trend provides a framework that cuts through daily price noise and media-driven panic. It serves as a strategic compass, helping investors avoid short-term distractions and align their positioning with Bitcoin’s long-term cycle dynamics.
Strategic Implications
If the 3+1 rhythm plays out once again, 2025 could mark the final leg of this bullish phase, making it a critical period for investor decision-making. With many short-term traders focused on technical patterns or news catalysts, the Yearly Percentage Trend offers a powerful reminder: Bitcoin’s performance follows a structural rhythm—not random chance.
Understanding this rhythm is key to staying grounded, even during the most volatile moments of the cycle.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/this-metric-that-reveals-bitcoins-true-direction-in-2025-according-to-cryptoquant/