According to a new analysis from Alphractal, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is fast approaching a long-standing resistance trendline, one that has historically played a major role in marking cycle tops. The question now: Will Bitcoin repeat history—or break through into uncharted territory?
Why the MVRV Z-Score Matters
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far BTC‘s market value has deviated from its realized value—a proxy for the average on-chain cost basis.
- High Z-Score levels often signal overheating and set the stage for corrections.
- Low Z-Score readings typically indicate undervaluation and strong accumulation zones.
This metric has served as a reliable guidepost for identifying both euphoric tops and deep value bottoms across previous market cycles.
Key Resistance Approaches—What Comes Next?
Bitcoin now faces a decision point. The MVRV Z-Score is closing in on a downward-sloping resistance line, which previously capped price expansion during earlier bull markets. Whether BTC reverses from this zone or breaks above it could shape the rest of the 2025 cycle.
Alphractal notes that in past cycles, Bitcoin has occasionally pierced this resistance, extending rallies far beyond expectations. However, if history holds, the current level could act as a ceiling—leading to cooling or sideways consolidation.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Bitcoin’s Macro Trend
Bitcoin’s next move may hinge on this critical on-chain signal. A decisive breakout above the MVRV trendline could confirm stronger-than-expected cycle strength, while a rejection may warn of nearing exhaustion.
Alphractal urges market participants to stay alert, as this inflection point could define the trajectory of the current cycle in the weeks ahead.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-nears-critical-mvrv-resistance-cycle-peak-or-breakout-ahead/