Crypto investor Fred Krueger has challenged the conventional wisdom behind Bitcoin’s four-year cycle model, asserting that the role of mining has become increasingly irrelevant in today’s market environment.
According to Krueger, the traditional halving-based model is no longer a valid framework for predicting Bitcoin’s long-term behavior.
Krueger argues that past market cycles were largely driven by the halving of block rewards. However, in 2025, institutional demand—particularly from Bitcoin ETFs and treasury-focused buyers—has significantly outpaced the impact of reduced mining rewards. “The reduction from 450 BTC/day to 225 BTC/day is minor,” Krueger noted, “when ETFs and treasury companies are collectively buying 5,000 BTC per day.”
He also criticized the over-reliance on historical cycle analysis built on only three prior data points, saying that trying to time the market top is both unreliable and counterproductive. “We don’t know when the top will happen,” Krueger said, suggesting that such predictions lack statistical validity.
Instead, he advised investors to adopt a more disciplined, long-term strategy based on the Kelly Criterion—a formula used to determine optimal investment sizing relative to risk. Krueger recommends holding a steady 70% allocation and rebalancing when needed. “It will capture most of the massive power law return,” he said. “So chill at 70%. Rebalance. Enjoy life.”
Krueger’s comments reflect a growing shift in crypto market thinking, where institutional flows are redefining the drivers of price cycles and challenging legacy models built around mining economics.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/mining-no-longer-matters-says-fred-krueger-as-etfs-redefine-bitcoin-cycles/